Perwaltniak

Andy MacDonald's tenure, for me at least, will always be tainted by the management's handling of Doug Weight. I know it is a little unfair to Andy, but it is what it is.

Having said that, I recognize the current Blues team has benefitted from the trade, more so, I think than the difference in playing ability between the two forwards. What Andy has done, what Doug never did, is solidify the top line. The Blues are now able to roll out a fast, talented top line (albeit a bit undersized) that can run with any top line in the league. The ancillary effect has been to shuttle Keith Tkachuk, permanently, onto the second line. Combined with Lee Stempniak and David Perron, they form Perwaltniak, they best second line the Blues have fielded since the Slovak line in the late ninties, a legitimate scoring threat every shift, and a menace to Decepticons everywhere.

If this line keeps producing, I think this lifts the Blues from playoff hopeful to contender. It will also give them added leverage in pursuit of a trade for a scorer, if they need it anymore. It has, however, only been a couple of games. Lee could backslide again (I don't see that happening), Andy Murray could decide to reduce Perron's playing time to the point where he is not a consistent line mate, or he could decide to place McClement or Backes on that line to try and get them some offense.

I'm going to enjoy this dynamic offense while I can. It may not last long, and in the salary cap era, who knows if it will ever be better than this.

Last Night's Game

I know that people can get highlights from a lot of places and everyone probably watched the game, but I am going to take the liberty of posting the video anyway because gems like that need to be part of our little archive. That was great to watch. We analyze and speculate but what it comes down to at game time is great effort from the note. I love it when the Blues play like this. It is why I am a fan. Beautiful game. I can't believe the score was so close. The Blues dominated and punished the Red Wings for 59 minutes and 30 seconds and you can't ask for much more than that as a Blues fan. Well done, boys. Well done.

The Trade

It has been some time since but still, whoa, that was some trade JD pulled off. I am still surprised because I had no idea that anything like this was possible. I suppose I am not ready to be GM yet. As for my opinion, I have to say I completely disagree with your take on it.

First of all the trade was motivated by money but more so on the Anaheim side. They needed to dump some salary so they could sign Neidermeyer for the remainder of the season. JD just took advantage of the situation.

I also disagree that McDonald is marginally better than Weight. It hurts to say it but Weight is done. I think if you could have been at the game in Chicago with me earlier in the season you would agree. In that game he looked like he didn't deserve to be playing in the NHL. He was slow and pushed around all over the ice. His career is over and I am surprised that Anaheim would take him. I suppose they figure they get to dump some money and get a fourth line center who has won a cup before (Carolina '06). Meanwhile McDonald is 6 years younger and can still skate, unlike Weight. He has played with Kariya before too and they seem to have some chemistry.

It sucks to see him go but this move was like pulling the band-aid off fast instead of slowly watching Weight disintegrate into nothing for the rest of the year. It has been painful watching him lumber around the ice this year. I was beginning to think that he was some kind of a charity case. We are lucky to have a decent center in return.

Nevertheless I wish Weight all the best. Here's a tall frosty one to number 39. It was fun while it lasted. Cheers!

Your point about JD/Pleau is a good one though. Exactly how are the duties delegated between them? It is beginning to look more like JD is full GM but who knows? I wonder if Pleau is on the sidelines because of his wife's condition. Perhaps he is just a mentor or something for JD. I would like to find out. By the way, I think if the Blues were covered by actual journalists this wouldn't be a question, but I digress.

Sweet, Sweet Speculation

The Blues have six forwards that are either unrestricted free agents (Martin Rucinsky, Ryan Johnson, and Mike Johnson) or restricted free agents (Brad Boyes, David Backes, and Jay McClement). The Blues have eight forwards that are signed through next year (McDonald, Kariya, Stempniak, Tkachuk, Perron, Hinote, Mayers, and King) and potentially three rookies who could graduate next year (Oshie, Berglund, and Linglet). This would mean the Blues have 17 players to fit into 13 roster slots (assuming that the Blues carry four lines and one substitute). I think we can restrict this discussion a little.

The Blues bring back all eight signed forwards, resign Boyes, and promote Oshie. This leaves 7 players to fill 3 roster slots.

The Blues cut ties with both Martin Rucinsky and Mike Johnson. This leaves 5 players to fill 3 roster slots.

Ryan Johnson. RJ provides great value to this team and should be brought back. He is a fast skater who can bang and plays great defense. He is a rock on the penalty kill. I think he needs to be brought back. If the Blues bring only one true energy/checking line, RJ can force Hinote and King into a rotation on that line.

David Backes. Much has already been written about him on this site. He is still relatively young, but I don’t see him evolving into a top six forward. If he is not a top six forward, and the Blues have young prospects coming up and some of the best defensive/energy guys around, what role can he fill?

Jay McClement. Perhaps unfairly, I view McClement the same as Backes. I think they came up together, so maybe that has something to do with it. I don’t see him as a top six forward, he is a year older than Backes, and the Blues already have a set energy line.

Patrik Berglund. I don’t know much about this player. Only from what others have read. The scuttlebutt is that he might be ready for the NHL next year, maybe not. Supposed to be a very good offensive forward but is still very young, not yet 20.

Charles Linglet. I watched this player in Peoria (see below). He seemed quite skilled but unmotivated. He apparently played himself out of a role on the team in the development camp before the season. He is not young (25 years old) for a prospect and is under control only through next season. If the Blues want to see if he can make it, he needs to be on the team next year.

I would choose to bring back RJ, Jay McClement, and Linglet (over Backes because Linglet already has a contract). We are no where near the end of this season let alone the beginning of next, so a lot of things can change. A few interesting notes. What if Boyes is tendered an offer sheet in the offseason? Should the Blues take Boyes or the picks? At what price? Will the Blues make a trade for another forward? If so, roster spots are tight so a current forward might go the other way in a package. This analysis did not look at salary cap issues as the current and future defensemen would greatly affect that and it would involve a lot of math I didn’t currently want to do.

Goodbye, Doug Weight

I was surprised and saddened by this trade. I had heard rumblings of talks between the Ducks and Blues but thought little of it. The focus had been on the Ducks moving Mathieu Schneider and the Blues certainly don't need another defensemen. The face of the Blues had been Keith Tkachuk, Doug Weight, and Jamal Mayers. How many other Blues players do you recognize on site? How many other Blues players do you recognize their voice? The management traded away some of the heart of this team to get marginally younger and marginally better offensively. Not only that, but they pestered and annoyed Doug so much that he agreed to waive his no trade clause. (The deal had been in place for a week, waiting for that.)

I have never been sold 100% on this new owner and management team. Checketts is a businessman pure and simple. Expect no emotional moves from him, expect emotional exploitation, and profit is the driver. (Not necessarily a bad thing, but media at the time hailed him as some kind of sports savior. No, he is a businessman who is buying low and will, in time, sell high. Make a note. The Blues will be for sale within 5 years.) John Davidson takes over as president. My problem with this is the treatment of Larry Pleau. Is he the GM? What exactly does he do now? My perception is that JD calls the shots and Larry just signs whatever he is told. If he is not doing the job, fire him. He just seems shuffled aside and forgotten.

When they came in, making money and proper sports strategy were aligned. The Blues needed to rebuild which means jettisoning high salaries for picks and young, cheap players. (I'm told that Chris Pronger offered to take a below market deal to stay in St. Louis and was denied to be traded to Edmonton.) The Blues are done stockpiling, however. They need to wait for what they have to develop. The trade of Weight, as I see it, was motivated completely by money and the fact that they pressured Doug to take it makes it despicable.

I understand that this is a ramble. I didn't bother to think about proper structure, I just wanted to get it down. This trade sucks.

EJ

I agree with your thoughts about Walker, especially the part about him being rusty for missing 19 games. You have to expect him to be sluggish after that. In any case, I don't think he is in the plans as being a cornerstone of the team at any point. He is a quality depth defenseman. The kind good teams have.

Last night's game was tough to watch. It looked like the Blues only wanted to put up enough effort to barely win. Doesn't it seem like they are surprised by their own success? Anyway, this season was always supposed to be about building for the future and in that respect last night's game was awesome because Erik Johnson was the best player on the ice as a 19 year old rookie defenseman. I've never seen that before. He had three assists, made great passes, battled all around the net, and quarterbacked the power play like a veteran. Last night's game was no fluke either. He's been playing well ever since he came back from the injury. It looks like he is starting to find his groove.

Here is how he stacks up against other rookie defensemen.

Rk	Pos	Player	Team	GP	G	A	P	PIM	+/-	PPG
1	D	Tobias Enstrom	ATL	29	3	13	16	14	10	0.55
2	D	Erik Johnson	STL	16	2	9	11	10	6	0.69
3	D	Matt Niskanen	DAL	31	2	9	11	16	5	0.35
4	D	Tom Gilbert	EDM	32	5	5	10	6	4	0.31
5	D	Alexander Edler	VAN	23	2	6	8	6	9	0.35
6	D	Steve Wagner	STL	21	2	6	8	8	0	0.38
7	D	Jack Johnson	LAK	30	1	4	5	24	-3	0.17
8	D	Andy Greene	NJD	29	1	3	4	12	7	0.14
9	D	Marc Staal	NYR	30	1	3	4	12	3	0.13
10	D	Kris Russell	CBJ	26	0	4	4	4	-2	0.15

If he hadn’t missed those games with the broken foot he would be easily be at the top of that list. I figure he’ll play about 60 games or so total this year and here what his production so far projects to:

Projection:			GP	G	A	P	PIM	+/-	PPG
		Erik Johnson	60	8	34	41	38	23	0.69

In case you’re wondering, those numbers are upper echelon in the NHL regardless of age. EJ is a 19 year old rookie and is already performing like a good NHL player. That just doesn’t happen with defensemen. He is going to be an amazing player and the Blues are very lucky to have him.

Walker's Return

I could have hoped for a little more from Matt Walker in his return to the lineup. Now that I've seen him again, he is much slower than the opposing forwards. Not in and of itself damning, but not a good thing. At one point an Oiler forward skated around Walker to the front of the net only to find that his stick has been tied up by Walker. The forward was then escorted into the corner, never to return. It represents the kind of player Walker can and needs to be. A big strong defensemen who positions himself to eliminate his weaknesses (speed) and accentuate his strengths (size, checking). The one glaring mistake he made led to a power play goal for Edmonton and cost the Blues the game. He went behind the net to chase a forward with the puck and left a forward in front of the net. At even strength, that wouldn't have been a mistake as a forward would have either covered the man in front or attacked the man behind the net. I think this was indicative of the 19 games Matt spent as a healthy scratch and not necessarily of his regular play. It seemed to me that he played scared. He was afraid of making a mistake and so he tried to get rid of the puck as soon as he got it. I'm not saying I want to see Matt Walker carry the puck up ice, but at one point he had time to hold the puck and make a decision and instead he immediately tried to clear it and it resulted in a turn over.

I am lowering my opinion of Walker but only by a little. At the begining of the season, I though he could potentially be a 3 or 4 defensemen. Now I think he can be a solid 5 or 6. He still has value and should allow the Blues to trade from defensive depth. I just hope he is not benched immediately, I would like to see him in at least four games to shake off the rust.

Peoria

Yeah, that trip to Peoria was rough for a lot of different reasons. Next time I am going to want weather and injury reports ahead of time. It was a shame that Lemtyugov was the only Blues prospect playing in the game. He looked like a good competitor but I didn't leave feeling like he was destined to wear the note any time soon.

As for the horrific debacle last night, I think the Blues just play like that about once every 10 games or so. I actually thought they played worse the last time they played Detroit. The worst part was Toivonen looking completely flustered. That was tough to watch because I was starting to think that he was destined to replace Legace next year or the year after. Suddenly it seems the Blues are thin on goalie prospects. Bacashiua (sp?) is gone along with Sanford. Toivonen looks suspect. Schwartz is having difficulties in the AHL. CBT did not impress me either over the weekend. That leaves the Blues with a couple of NCAA prospects I think. That is not good. I hope they don't have to pay a ton for a free agent.

Also, what's the deal with Backman? Is there any doubt who should sit now? That play where he gave it up to Smyth was a disgrace. I am starting to think that there is something seriously wrong with him. I was hoping he would be traded but who would want him?

The good news from last night's game was watching Stempniak and Perron score. I think Stempniak is back. If he didn't have to play with such dead weight every game like Backes and McClement, then I think he would be on a pace similar to last year.

Perron had a two point night again. He has 11 points in 16 games. Plus, I think in about 4 or 5 of those games he played only about 5 minutes. So he is basically already a point per game player as a 19 year old rookie playing on what is perhaps the worst offensive team in the league. He could be a scoring machine soon. This team is going to really be fun to watch when Oshie and Berglund come up next year. Substitute Perron for Mike Johnson, Oshie for Doug Weight, Berglund for McClement and already the team has a bright future. Add to that a top offensive talent for one of our extra defensemen and the Blues are a looking strong for a long time. When is the trade deadline?

Rumblings from the Weekend

I made the trip up to Peoria on Saturday to watch the Rivermen against the Quad City Flames. First, I should not have made the trip. Springfield had freezing rain. I nearly wiped out on an overpass. I passed by no less than six accidents. The game was not good. Beckford-Tseu was bad, real bad. He couldn't control a rebound to save his life and had a hard time catching pucks with his glove. The Rivermen had played the night before and maybe he was tired but not a good sign in any way. On defense, Ryan Glenn (28 years old) and Alexander Hellstrom (20 years old) played well while Aaron MacKenzie (26 years old) and Micki DuPont (27 years old) did not. Roman Polak was injured the night before and is out anywhere from 2 weeks to a month. Trent Whitfield (30 years old) and Martin Kariya (26 years old) were the hardest working forwards on the team. Charles Linglet (25 years old) seemed to be the most skilled but seemed lackadasical and sloppy. Both Nikolay Lemtyugov (21 years old) and Nicholas Drazenovic (20 years old) showed potential, especially cycling the puck at even strength, but need work. I can't argue against the idea that the referee was terrible. Numerous penalties broke up the flow of the game that the Rivermen seemed suited for. We then proceeded to Richards where I had a steak sandwich and lost in bubble hockey 5-2.

As soon as I believe that the Blues might have good goaltending, they get smoked 9-5 by the Avalanche. If your team gives up 9 goals, everyone is going to look bad. Maybe Matt Walker will get to start next game. I don't really have anything else to say.

Elite Forward vs. Elite Defenseman

This topic was broached in the Stltoday.com Bluestalk forums.

Is an elite forward more important to his team than an elite defenseman? I posit that an elite forward is more important than an elite defenseman. It is my stance that you can build a very good defensive team with a collection of good defensemen. However, I don't think it is possible to build a very good offense with a collection of good forwards. Perhaps my view is just obscured by the Blues' situation.

The Blues do not have an elite defenseman but do have a very good defense because they roll out three pairs of good defensemen. If you take away their best defenseman (much argument about who that is), they will still have a very good defense. The closest the Blues have to an elite forward is Paul Kariya (elite: yes or no?). If you remove Paul from the lineup, the Blues go from a mediocre offense to a bad offense.

Now look at the flip side and add players. If you add an elite defenseman, the Blues' defense would improve but not significantly. If you add an elite forward, the Blues' offense goes from mediocre to very good, rolling out two dominate scoring lines. Like I said, this opinion is probably colored by the state of the Blues. They are stacked with good to very good defensemen and are severely lacking in skilled forwards. Thankfully, I will be in a situation to re-evaluate my opinion when the Blues' graduate their young skilled forwards drafted in the recent years.

Hannu the Starting Goalie

I didn't see the game in Calgary. But I didn't need to. Every description I've read indicated that Hannu played his ass off. (I am now refusing to use the term 'standing on his head') Every game I've seen him play in he has played great. When I first heard Carl Soderberg was traded to Boston for some goaltender, I was quite upset. First, Soderberg was the one young player I noticed in the 2006 pre-season training camp. He impressed me. And, at the time, the Blues had too many goaltenders. Now Hannu has played great, Bacashihua has been traded, Riksman is in Europe somewhere, Schwarz has slipped, and Beckford-Tseu was supposed to play in Alaska this year. (Soderberg, meanwhile, has recovered from his eye injury and Boston expects him to make the team next year. Boston and St. Louis have made two minor trades that both teams are benefiting from.) Since the glory days of Roman Turek and Brent Johnson, I have expected gross inconsistency from the St. Louis Blues' goalies. With Legacy and Toivonen, might that expectation go unrealized?


N.B. Hinote is signed for two years at $1 million a year. Unfortunately, he isn't going anywhere.

Future Blues

Yes, I did watch the Chicago game and the Blues played pretty well. I still think the Buffalo game was their best so far but I will never complain about beating the Blackhawks. What was interesting was watching the Chicago feed of the game since that is where I live. First off, their announcers are terrible. They barely say anything and when they do talk it is just a mumble here and there. The post game show was a little better. They were talking about how the Blackhawks just didn't have their legs because they played three games in four nights. Never mind that the Blues had the same schedule. Actually every time I watch the Blues on Center Ice with the away feed the announcers say the same thing. Something like, "It's just one of those games where the blank are out of gas from playing so much".

Guess again mullethead, that's just St. Louis Blues defense.

Your post about the personnel decisions the Blues will be making soon deserves much analysis. We should throughout the season post comparisons of the Blues various options. My gut feeling is that Rucinsky, Weight, Mike Johnson, Hinote, and McClement will all be gone. Of those McClement brings the most to the table but I think he just a poor man's Oshie and you're right, Oshie will be on the team next year. I think he should just take McClement's spot.

I am guessing Weight will retire but anything is possible. We will have to dig deeper on this.

Should he stay or should he go?

The Blues are playing fantastic hockey right now. I hope you saw the game against Chicago. Dominating.

But here comes the hard question. How good are the Blues? I believe that they are good enough to make the playoffs. Even though they currently have the third best point/game ratio, I don't think they are good enough to win the Cup. (It could happen, just not likely) This means that the Blues still need to think of next year and not this year. Should Doug Weight resign with the Blues?

The Blues have one too many forwards right now (Rucinsky is on the IR). But only four forwards are UFAs. Rucinsky (gone), Mike Johnson (gone), Ryan Johnson (gone?), and Doug Weight. It is almost guaranteed that TJ Oshie will be on the team next year. If the Blues trade for a forward this year, only Ryan Johnson or Doug Weight should be resigned, but not both. (Any injuries could be substitued by players from Peoria, as it should be)

At this point in their careers, I cannot argue that Doug Weight has more value that Ryan Johnson. DW is horribly slow but has great hands and can pass. He is still a great skill player but his speed limits its effectiveness. I think of a latter day Adam Oates. RJ is a fast skater who can hit and is a tremendous defender and forechecker but has little offensive value.

In the fantasy world where I run the Blues, I would punt Rucinsky, MJ, and Dan Hinote. (I just never warmed up to this guy.) McClement and Backes are on the bubble. I would bring back both Weight and RJ. I think Weight can be an effective third line center behind Tkachuk and Oshie. Of course, my sentimentality has me looking for reasons to keep Weight. What I think will happen is that RJ will be brought back and Weight signs a one year contract with another team (back to Edmonton?) and then calls it a career. A year after that, the Blues ownership group will have a special Doug Weight day to sell tickets.


Good stuff on Backes. I think it was Jeff Gordon who began fluffing him last year. I think, at best, Backes and McClement can evolve into effective defensive forwards on an energy line, supplanting Mayers and Ryan Johnson.

Backes vs Tkacuk

Tkachuk

Year	Team	League	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM	PPG	Age
1991-92	Winnipeg	NHL	17	3	5	8	28	0.47	19.5
1992-93	Winnipeg	NHL	83	28	23	51	201	0.61	20.5
1993-94	Winnipeg	NHL	84	41	40	81	255	0.96	21.5
1994-95	Winnipeg	NHL	48	22	29	51	152	1.06	22.5
1995-96	Winnipeg	NHL	76	50	48	98	156	1.29	23.5

Backes

Year	Team	League	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM	PPG	Age
2006-07	Blues	NHL	49	10	13	23	37	0.47	22.4
2007-08	Blues	NHL	14	2	2	4	22	0.29	23.4

These are tables of Tkachuk's production in the early years vs Backes' production now. I had a little trouble making it look nice in this text editor but it will do.

Any way you look at it Backes just doesn't measure up. Backes has only played a bit less than one season but at that point in Tkachuk's career he was already producing at about a half a point per game. Backes production is lower but not by as much as I would have thought (~0.4 PPG). However, another thing to keep in mind are the ages represented here. Tkachuk came into the league as a 19 year old, three years sooner than Backes. When Tkachuk was Backes' age he had a 40 goal season on his resume.

I'm all for giving him a chance but these comparisons of Backes to Tkachuk are mostly wishful thinking. That is unless he can start scoring at a point per game rate soon.