Kyle's Opening Analysis

Kyle

The Blues currently have a surplus of defensemen and a dearth of skilled scoring forwards. The obvious next step is to trade in those ‘extra’ defensemen for some skill players. I wanted to take a look at the top eight defensemen for the Blues (those on the roster) and see whether a trade makes sense and who (or is it whom?) would have the most value.

Eric Brewer is supposed to be ‘The Man’ on the Blues defense. (At least until Erik Johnson becomes ‘The Man’) A big, strong defensemen capable of shutting down the best forwards in the game as well as contributing offensively, if not with goals, then with great outlet passes and quarterbacking the powerplay. Eric has played very, very well but, in my eyes, he has not played great. He is the highest paid defensemen ($4.25 m) but that is still a modest salary in these days. He is under control the longest (until 2010-2011 season) among the non-rookies and is still relatively young (b. 1979). Eric should have the highest value among the defensemen aside from Erik Johnson.

Jay McKee has two and half years left with the Blues and has yet to be in the lineup regularly (either through injury or the glut of defensemen the Blues now have). His value lies somewhere in between Eric Brewer and Barret Jackman. He is more physical than Brewer but not as physical as Jackman. He is more offensive than Jackman but not as offensive as Brewer. I believe his play in his own end is underappreciated and I believe he is probably the best defenseman in his own zone on the Blues. His salary ($4 m) is not unmovable and he is under contract through the 2009-2010 season. His value will be based on only his play now and through the next two years. He will not get a great young player but he could get a young veteran who has fallen out of favor (Maxim Afinogenov has been mentioned).

Barret Jackman won the Calder Trophy in the pre-lookout era. In 2006-2007, it looked like the game had passed him by and his style of play was out. In the first part of this season, however, he looked really good. He has trailed off a bit, I think, but is still a top defenseman. Although smaller than both McKee and Brewer, he plays a much more physical game then either. He positions himself well, hits his opponents hard on the boards and in front of the net, and isn’t afraid to drop the gloves. He has shown the most passion of all the Blues defensemen. He has zero offensive value. Despite this and the fact he is an UFA at the end of this season, he could be more valuable than McKee, because of his more punishing style of play. His $2.2 million salary and youth (b. 1981) should make him easy to move.

Bryce Salvador is the oldest of the Blues defensemen (born 1976) and becomes an UFA at the end of the year. Bryce is a solid, tough, stay-at-home defenseman and would be in the top six of any team. At times this season, he has looked slow. That will only get worse with age. He has a small contract ($1.4 million) but the short contract and his lack of speed means he has almost no value in the trade market.

Christian Backman is the lone European defenseman on the Blues roster. He is a slick skater and gifted passer. He lacks a physical game (he is tall at 6’4” but underweight for that height), seems a little passive, can be inconsistent, and isn’t the best defensive defenseman. After the first 10-15 games I was ready to see him go. Now, he seems to have tightened up his defensive game a great deal, but, of course, he is inconsistent and could revert back. He is still relatively young (born 1980) but his salary is $2.3 million and it lasts only until the end of next season. Offensive defensemen seem to be undervalued (in my opinion) unless they score like forwards. I, therefore, think that Christian will be undervalued in a trade.

Erik Johnson isn’t going anywhere. He is supposed to make us forget Chris Pronger, and he might do that. He is a big kid (born 1988) who can push anyone off the puck and he already shows offensive talent. He makes $3.7 million through 2009-2010 when he becomes a RFA. It will be important to keep veteran defensemen around to prevent the pressure of expectations from cracking this kid.

Steve Wagner was signed as an undrafted free agent before the season began and what a find. He is a decent defenseman (can get better) but he might be the best offensive defenseman the Blues have right now. He is a great skater but I would like to see more physical play from him. He is 6’2”, which might be small for a defenseman today but he is bigger than Jackman. He is young (born 1984), has a salary of under $1 million, and is under control through next season when he becomes a RFA. I don’t anticipate a trade market for Wagner. His value to the Blues would be higher than any trade except something ridiculous.

The last of the eight defensemen is Matt Walker. He apparently learned how to skate this past summer because he is head and shoulders above what I saw last year. Last year he was just a tough guy to send out to fight other tough guys. This year he skates well and his defensive seems to have improved while still being able to fight anyone. Unfortunately, he doesn’t get much playing time behind all the other defensemen. His limited playing time and UFA status means he has almost no value. I believe that, with more hard work, he could be a bigger, stronger version of Barret Jackman.

I’ve gone through the eight defensemen but does it make sense to trade any of them. First, we have to understand that this season is not the end of the rebuilding period for the Blues. Next season might not be. Looking ahead, the Blues have only 5 defensemen signed for next year. Jackman, Salvador, and Walker are all UFA next season. If I understand correctly, these players cannot be signed to an extension until after the New Year. We may not see a trade until one or more of those players are signed to extensions. Of the players above, I believe that only Brewer, McKee, Jackman, and Backman would have value in the trade market. With Wagner’s progress, I think Backman becomes redundant (especially with Johnson and, from what I hear, Roman Polak as Blues) and could be traded. The problem, I feel, is that the Blues won’t get what they need, a young, skilled, scoring forward. If they can get that (Brad Boyes part 2?) then I think Backman needs to go. From the trio of Brewer, McKee, and Jackman, I think two of those need to stay Blues. My choice would be to trade Brewer. Davidson was surprised by the offers he received for him in the offseason (1^st round pick? Multiples?). Brewer would clear the most money (to resign Jackman) and would fetch the most in return. However, the coach and management have a man-crush on Brewer (not wholly underserved) which would make trading him very unlikely. I expect either McKee or Jackman (if Jackman is resigned in January, McKee will be traded) to be traded along with Backman. Don’t expect any first round picks to come back. I wouldn’t expect any high picks. I think the Blues will pick up two or three young forwards, one of whom might be worth a damn.

Information about players and their contracts came from The Hockey News (www.thehockeynews.com).