The Blues were 5 -4 with Oshie on the roster. Since his injury the Blues are 0-4.
He's supposed to be out for at least another month. Let's hope we aren't completely out of the playoffs by then.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
Happy Free Agency Day!
Unrestricted Free Agents are free to negotiate with any team they choose and Restricted Free Agents are allowed to sign offer sheets if they are submitted.
I have a feeling that free agency is going to be less and less important to hockey teams as we move forward. With the salary cap, teams are more and more willing to sign their younger players to long contracts that last into the player's 30s. At that point, it becomes a risk to sign said player to a long contract. Because of this, free agents will never form the core of a team.
As a supplement to free agency, the offer sheet and the trading of the rights of restricted free agents will become more and more prominent (see Ryan Malone). Because of salary cap restrictions, not every good restricted free agent can be retained by his team. The team can either trade his rights for a combination of assets or allow other teams to submit offer sheets to the player and collect the draft pick compensation.
Do not expect the Blues to ever make many major acquisitions. They will focus on signing their own players as the veteran contracts expire. St. Louis is a small market; the Blues rank in the lower half in revenue in the league and should be expected to have a payroll in the lower half.
I have a feeling that free agency is going to be less and less important to hockey teams as we move forward. With the salary cap, teams are more and more willing to sign their younger players to long contracts that last into the player's 30s. At that point, it becomes a risk to sign said player to a long contract. Because of this, free agents will never form the core of a team.
As a supplement to free agency, the offer sheet and the trading of the rights of restricted free agents will become more and more prominent (see Ryan Malone). Because of salary cap restrictions, not every good restricted free agent can be retained by his team. The team can either trade his rights for a combination of assets or allow other teams to submit offer sheets to the player and collect the draft pick compensation.
Do not expect the Blues to ever make many major acquisitions. They will focus on signing their own players as the veteran contracts expire. St. Louis is a small market; the Blues rank in the lower half in revenue in the league and should be expected to have a payroll in the lower half.
Monday, June 30, 2008
Prospect Camp
I was able to attend the prospect camp but only on Friday. I was off to the right side of the rink and was only able to see one side of the ice. I therefore got a good look at the defensemen from the first skate and the forwards from the second skate.
I was not impressed with the defensemen that I saw. No one really had a booming shot. Only about one out of three shots hit the net. Passing did not look very good.
I was impressed with what I saw out of the offense. This was the first time I saw TJ Oshie and he is good. I didn't notice Berglund much. I saw Lemtyugov in Peoria for a game and he looked faster today (of course, this was just drills). Nikiforov = itty bitty. Reaves looked huge out there.
I didn't go to the game on Friday night. Comments have mentioned that Berglund seems timid. This could be the worst thing for him. At this point, I would not be surprised if he went to Peoria to start the season.
I was not impressed with the defensemen that I saw. No one really had a booming shot. Only about one out of three shots hit the net. Passing did not look very good.
I was impressed with what I saw out of the offense. This was the first time I saw TJ Oshie and he is good. I didn't notice Berglund much. I saw Lemtyugov in Peoria for a game and he looked faster today (of course, this was just drills). Nikiforov = itty bitty. Reaves looked huge out there.
I didn't go to the game on Friday night. Comments have mentioned that Berglund seems timid. This could be the worst thing for him. At this point, I would not be surprised if he went to Peoria to start the season.
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Bluenote Sighting - "My Name is Earl"
I love it when I see random references to the beloved note in pop culture. This just became one of my favorite shows.
If you know of any Blues references in pop culture, let us know and we'll put it up.
Monday, June 23, 2008
Denouement
The draft was over and, contrary to my belief, the Blues were done dealing (mostly; they picked up a seventh round pick this year for next year's seventh round pick). I have to say, I am a little underwhelmed. Here are the picks:
Alex Pietrangelo D 4th (1st round)
Philip McRae C 33rd (2nd round)
Jake Allen G 34th (2nd round)
Jori Lehtera C 65th (3rd round)
James Livingstone RW 70th (3rd round, this is the Jamal Mayers pick)
Ian Schultz RW 87th (3rd round)
David Warsofsky D 95th (4th round)
Kristoffer Berglund D 125th (5th round)
Anthony Nigro C 155th (6th round)
Paul Karpowich G 185th (7th round)
The later rounds are such a crap shoot that I won't comment on them.
Alex Pietrangelo was the expected pick for the Blues. Not as developed defensively as Luke Schenn but has more potential. Nikita Filatov was a wildcard but was never really considered a pick for the Blues by most. Assuming his health is not a questions, he is expected to be an offensive force from the blueline and a power play quarterback. The duo of Erik Johnson and Alex Pietrangelo might be enough to make us forget the tandem of Chris Pronger and Al MacInnis. (It won't) The comparisons I hear are Chris Pronger without the edge. That could be a good thing as Pronger lets his temper get to him sometimes. However, 'without the edge' makes me think he might not be aggressive. When I think of passive defensemen, my thoughts turn to Christian Backman and I shudder with disappointment.
Philip McRae is the son of Basil McRae, the former Blue. This is by and large considered a reach by the Blues. McRae was rated, pre-draft, as a third round pick and he went at the beginning of the second. He is said to have good size and good hands but his speed and footwork are lacking. That is the description of Charles Linglet, who is now a career minor leaguer (outside chance to make the team this year, but I would be shocked). For a second round pick, he must be better than that. But will he be Jay McClement or Craig Conroy?
Jake Allen was not the top rated goalie when he was drafted. It is so hard to determine the potential of a goalie that I don't know if this was an appropriate pick
The last player I will touch on is Jori Lehtera. He is Finnish and is already 20 years old. I believe that he was passed up in two previous drafts but don't take that as fact. He had a breakout year offensively in Finland that put him on the radar of Jarmo Kekalanian, a fellow Finn. With his (relatively) advanced age and his recent performance, he would be my dark horse to make the team. However, I have not seen his name on the list of prospects at the development camp.
Alex Pietrangelo D 4th (1st round)
Philip McRae C 33rd (2nd round)
Jake Allen G 34th (2nd round)
Jori Lehtera C 65th (3rd round)
James Livingstone RW 70th (3rd round, this is the Jamal Mayers pick)
Ian Schultz RW 87th (3rd round)
David Warsofsky D 95th (4th round)
Kristoffer Berglund D 125th (5th round)
Anthony Nigro C 155th (6th round)
Paul Karpowich G 185th (7th round)
The later rounds are such a crap shoot that I won't comment on them.
Alex Pietrangelo was the expected pick for the Blues. Not as developed defensively as Luke Schenn but has more potential. Nikita Filatov was a wildcard but was never really considered a pick for the Blues by most. Assuming his health is not a questions, he is expected to be an offensive force from the blueline and a power play quarterback. The duo of Erik Johnson and Alex Pietrangelo might be enough to make us forget the tandem of Chris Pronger and Al MacInnis. (It won't) The comparisons I hear are Chris Pronger without the edge. That could be a good thing as Pronger lets his temper get to him sometimes. However, 'without the edge' makes me think he might not be aggressive. When I think of passive defensemen, my thoughts turn to Christian Backman and I shudder with disappointment.
Philip McRae is the son of Basil McRae, the former Blue. This is by and large considered a reach by the Blues. McRae was rated, pre-draft, as a third round pick and he went at the beginning of the second. He is said to have good size and good hands but his speed and footwork are lacking. That is the description of Charles Linglet, who is now a career minor leaguer (outside chance to make the team this year, but I would be shocked). For a second round pick, he must be better than that. But will he be Jay McClement or Craig Conroy?
Jake Allen was not the top rated goalie when he was drafted. It is so hard to determine the potential of a goalie that I don't know if this was an appropriate pick
The last player I will touch on is Jori Lehtera. He is Finnish and is already 20 years old. I believe that he was passed up in two previous drafts but don't take that as fact. He had a breakout year offensively in Finland that put him on the radar of Jarmo Kekalanian, a fellow Finn. With his (relatively) advanced age and his recent performance, he would be my dark horse to make the team. However, I have not seen his name on the list of prospects at the development camp.
Friday, June 20, 2008
Why Mayers was expendable
The Blues traded Mayers to Toronto for a pick and here's why. Take a look at the likely forward roster to start the season (less Mayers):
The way I see it the lines shake out something like this:
(assumes RJ is gone soon)
That fourth line is crowded without him. Besides, I have seen Lemtyugov three times and the player he reminds me of most is Jamal Mayers, so we really don't lose anything. We are lucky that Toronto took his salary away. As far as I'm concerned Hinote is expendable as well.
Having said that, Mayers has been a Blue since 1993. 1993! And during that time he has been a warrior. It has been great watching him play. He is a true Blue. I think he deserves a statue next to Federko's (maybe half the size). It could be a scene of him in action shooting the puck 5 feet wide of the net or backchecking hard. LOL
Seriously though, I wish him all the best. Good luck in Toronto, Jammer!
| David Backes |
| Brad Boyes |
| Dan Hinote |
| Cam Janssen |
| Ryan Johnson |
| Paul Kariya "A" |
| D.J. King |
| Jay McClement |
| Andy McDonald |
| David Perron |
| Lee Stempniak |
| Keith Tkachuk "A" |
| TJ Oshie |
| Patrick Berglund |
| Nikolai Lemtyugov |
The way I see it the lines shake out something like this:
| Kariya | McDonald | Boyes |
| Tkachuk | Berglund | Perron |
| Backes | Oshie | Stempniak |
| Lemtyugov | McClement | King/Janssen |
| extra: Hinote | ||
That fourth line is crowded without him. Besides, I have seen Lemtyugov three times and the player he reminds me of most is Jamal Mayers, so we really don't lose anything. We are lucky that Toronto took his salary away. As far as I'm concerned Hinote is expendable as well.
Having said that, Mayers has been a Blue since 1993. 1993! And during that time he has been a warrior. It has been great watching him play. He is a true Blue. I think he deserves a statue next to Federko's (maybe half the size). It could be a scene of him in action shooting the puck 5 feet wide of the net or backchecking hard. LOL
Seriously though, I wish him all the best. Good luck in Toronto, Jammer!
The Story so far...
The Blues have made two trades within the last 24 hours and heading into the 2008 draft. The first, on Thursday night, was the trade of Jamal Mayers to Toronto for a third round pick. The second was the acquisition of goalie Chris Mason from Nashville for a fourth round pick.
It has been stated over and over here and in other places that the Blues have too many non-scoring forwards. We all wanted this problem corrected but I never thought it would involve the release of Ryan Johnson (he hasn't been resigned as of yet) and the trade of Jamal Mayers. These were the two best defensive forward the Blues had. The two best penalty killers that the Blues had. Perhaps McClement and Hinote can step up but I no longer have faith in the penalty killing and wonder what the opposing teams' top lines will now do to the Blues.
Jamal Mayers was drafted by the Blues as a fourth round pick and first played for the team in 1996. He played in excess of 590 games for the Blues and only nine other players in Blues history have played more. At the time of his trade, he was the longest tenured professional athlete in St. Louis, including the players of the Blues, Cardinals, and Rams.
The Chris Mason acquisition was a good one. For a fourth round pick, the Blues got a better than average backup that will push Ben Bishop in the years to come for playing time.
The first round of the draft is tonight with the Blues picking fourth overall. Speculation points to either Alex Pietrangelo or Luke Schenn, both defensemen, as the Blues pick. I don't think the dealing is done, however.
It has been stated over and over here and in other places that the Blues have too many non-scoring forwards. We all wanted this problem corrected but I never thought it would involve the release of Ryan Johnson (he hasn't been resigned as of yet) and the trade of Jamal Mayers. These were the two best defensive forward the Blues had. The two best penalty killers that the Blues had. Perhaps McClement and Hinote can step up but I no longer have faith in the penalty killing and wonder what the opposing teams' top lines will now do to the Blues.
Jamal Mayers was drafted by the Blues as a fourth round pick and first played for the team in 1996. He played in excess of 590 games for the Blues and only nine other players in Blues history have played more. At the time of his trade, he was the longest tenured professional athlete in St. Louis, including the players of the Blues, Cardinals, and Rams.
The Chris Mason acquisition was a good one. For a fourth round pick, the Blues got a better than average backup that will push Ben Bishop in the years to come for playing time.
The first round of the draft is tonight with the Blues picking fourth overall. Speculation points to either Alex Pietrangelo or Luke Schenn, both defensemen, as the Blues pick. I don't think the dealing is done, however.
Thursday, May 29, 2008
Why is postseason hockey the best sports postseason?
Desperation.
Hockey is the only of the major sports where desperation can be seen in the play on the ice.
Baseball is an 'event' based sport. The pitcher pitches and the batter hits it or he doesn't. The action stops until the next pitch. This slows everything down. And it is not as though the pitcher will throw harder or the batter will swing harder. Sure some of the players can be more aggressive running the bases, but that's about it. The desperation to win doesn't translate on the field.
Basketball degenerates into a free throwing contest. Whenever a game in basketball is close at the end of a game, the losing team immediately fouls the winning team in order to 'put them on the line' hoping that they will miss there throws and get the ball back. This breaks up any kind of rhythm the game might have and slows it down.
In football, the closest thing is the hurry-up offense. The offense will quickly move down the field while the clock is running. The desperation can be seen in some of the reckless play of both the offense and defense. But often, the team that is leading can just run out the clock to win, leading to a kind of anti-climax.
In hockey, the desperation is palpable. The losing team begins to play a little more recklessly. They hit more. The defense pinches in more. The bench is shortened. This will lead to odd man rushes in a counter attack. Often times, the officials know this and will let play continue past minor offenses. Last night I watched 5+ minutes of continuous, desperate hockey in the third period. I don't have a dog in this fight but I couldn't help but feel the excitement.
I can't wait until the Blues get back there.
Hockey is the only of the major sports where desperation can be seen in the play on the ice.
Baseball is an 'event' based sport. The pitcher pitches and the batter hits it or he doesn't. The action stops until the next pitch. This slows everything down. And it is not as though the pitcher will throw harder or the batter will swing harder. Sure some of the players can be more aggressive running the bases, but that's about it. The desperation to win doesn't translate on the field.
Basketball degenerates into a free throwing contest. Whenever a game in basketball is close at the end of a game, the losing team immediately fouls the winning team in order to 'put them on the line' hoping that they will miss there throws and get the ball back. This breaks up any kind of rhythm the game might have and slows it down.
In football, the closest thing is the hurry-up offense. The offense will quickly move down the field while the clock is running. The desperation can be seen in some of the reckless play of both the offense and defense. But often, the team that is leading can just run out the clock to win, leading to a kind of anti-climax.
In hockey, the desperation is palpable. The losing team begins to play a little more recklessly. They hit more. The defense pinches in more. The bench is shortened. This will lead to odd man rushes in a counter attack. Often times, the officials know this and will let play continue past minor offenses. Last night I watched 5+ minutes of continuous, desperate hockey in the third period. I don't have a dog in this fight but I couldn't help but feel the excitement.
I can't wait until the Blues get back there.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Regular Season Overtime vs. Playoff Overtime
I don't have a problem with overtime losses worth a point or the shootout. Nor do I have a problem with only four skaters per side. I think they make overtime exciting and teams are more willingly to be aggressive. I have a problem with the rules of the game changing once the playoffs start. The teams that got to the playoffs competing with one set of rules should be allowed to compete using those same sets of rules. The only series that would have been dramatically altered was the Dallas-San Jose series. I believe three of the games went to overtime and the sixth game saw a 4th overtime. Would it have made a difference? Maybe, but the point is that the rules shouldn't change.
The curious thing about the rules change: the regular season ensures a winner and a loser after 5 minutes. The playoff rules actually make it harder to determine a winner and can result in the 4 OT game that Dallas endured.
The curious thing about the rules change: the regular season ensures a winner and a loser after 5 minutes. The playoff rules actually make it harder to determine a winner and can result in the 4 OT game that Dallas endured.
Monday, April 28, 2008
European NHL
This post could also be called "If I were the King of the Universe..." So that should tell you where I am going with this.
Of the major North American sports (yes, hockey is one of them and, no, soccer is not), it seems obvious to me that hockey has the greatest appeal and participation in Europe. With the latest developments in world economies, the Eurozone combined economy is now on par with the United States economy in terms of size (The pivot point, based on 2007 GDP, is 1.56 dollars to the euro.) and the combined European economy is as large or perhaps larger than a combined United States - Canadian economy. But America/Canada has numerous continent spanning sports leagues (MLB, NFL, NBA in addition to the NHL) while Europe has only one large one of which I am aware - the Champions League. Again, it seems obvious to me that Europe can support one continent spanning hockey league. The question for the NHL is whether they define it or does someone else (IIHF) define it.
As King of the Universe and the NHL, I would want to define it before the nascent Champions Hockey League grows roots. So here is my plan:
1) A 24 team North American division and a 12 team European division. I would propose that 6 teams from the current NHL be dissolved. This would coincide immediately with 12 expansion teams in Europe.
2) Six dissolved NHL teams: The 6 NHL team owners will have the option of owning one of the new European franchises outright or selling those rights to a suitable owner. The six franchises will be chosen based on a formula using number of season ticket holders and total revenue generated with special attention to doubled and trebled markets (I'm looking at you, LA and NY). Some of the owners will resist but the prospect of moving to a tier one European city should be a step up from either a third tier American city or being the undercard in a tier one American city.
3) Dissolve the six transferred NHL teams: All of the players would be added to the expansion draft for the now 12 expansion teams. This will level the playing field, at least among the European teams.
4) Expansion team ownership: The prime markets for these European teams already have nation-based leagues that will cry fowl at the revenue lost. I would propose that these leagues own, at least in part or temporarily, one expansion team that enters its home market. The RSL could own either the Moscow team or the St. Petersburg team, but not both. The team rights that are not owned by the former NHL owners or European leagues will be sold and the money distributed to the surviving owners.
5) Expansion draft: Aside from the players from the dissolved teams, players and prospects from surviving NHL teams would be added to the draft pool. Each team will be able to protect 14 players on its current roster and 10 prospects (arbitrary number) from the draft. All other players are fair game.
6) Restricted inter-league play: The travel for the teams will be horrendous if it is not restricted. I propose that play be restricted to one or two weeks a year leading into the All-Star game. The teams will travel to whichever continent the the All-Star is being held on.
7) North America ice surface: The leagues in Europe will use the North American sized ice rinks. This will mean building out the rinks from scratch (many do not exist to begin with) or adapting current rinks. This will insure that playing styles will be similar and that one league will not have an advantage over the other.
8) Restricted playoffs: The North American division will have three rounds, the first a best of five series. The European division will have two rounds. There will then be a final series between NA and Eu in a seven game series. The early rounds are restricted and condensed to allow extra travel time for the finals.
Well, I think that is everything. Of course, I didn't look at how this will work out financially. My hope would be that in ten years, the European clubs are self-sustaining. This could open the door for a rival NA league in the abandoned markets. Talent dilution could be a problem. I welcome comments.
Of the major North American sports (yes, hockey is one of them and, no, soccer is not), it seems obvious to me that hockey has the greatest appeal and participation in Europe. With the latest developments in world economies, the Eurozone combined economy is now on par with the United States economy in terms of size (The pivot point, based on 2007 GDP, is 1.56 dollars to the euro.) and the combined European economy is as large or perhaps larger than a combined United States - Canadian economy. But America/Canada has numerous continent spanning sports leagues (MLB, NFL, NBA in addition to the NHL) while Europe has only one large one of which I am aware - the Champions League. Again, it seems obvious to me that Europe can support one continent spanning hockey league. The question for the NHL is whether they define it or does someone else (IIHF) define it.
As King of the Universe and the NHL, I would want to define it before the nascent Champions Hockey League grows roots. So here is my plan:
1) A 24 team North American division and a 12 team European division. I would propose that 6 teams from the current NHL be dissolved. This would coincide immediately with 12 expansion teams in Europe.
2) Six dissolved NHL teams: The 6 NHL team owners will have the option of owning one of the new European franchises outright or selling those rights to a suitable owner. The six franchises will be chosen based on a formula using number of season ticket holders and total revenue generated with special attention to doubled and trebled markets (I'm looking at you, LA and NY). Some of the owners will resist but the prospect of moving to a tier one European city should be a step up from either a third tier American city or being the undercard in a tier one American city.
3) Dissolve the six transferred NHL teams: All of the players would be added to the expansion draft for the now 12 expansion teams. This will level the playing field, at least among the European teams.
4) Expansion team ownership: The prime markets for these European teams already have nation-based leagues that will cry fowl at the revenue lost. I would propose that these leagues own, at least in part or temporarily, one expansion team that enters its home market. The RSL could own either the Moscow team or the St. Petersburg team, but not both. The team rights that are not owned by the former NHL owners or European leagues will be sold and the money distributed to the surviving owners.
5) Expansion draft: Aside from the players from the dissolved teams, players and prospects from surviving NHL teams would be added to the draft pool. Each team will be able to protect 14 players on its current roster and 10 prospects (arbitrary number) from the draft. All other players are fair game.
6) Restricted inter-league play: The travel for the teams will be horrendous if it is not restricted. I propose that play be restricted to one or two weeks a year leading into the All-Star game. The teams will travel to whichever continent the the All-Star is being held on.
7) North America ice surface: The leagues in Europe will use the North American sized ice rinks. This will mean building out the rinks from scratch (many do not exist to begin with) or adapting current rinks. This will insure that playing styles will be similar and that one league will not have an advantage over the other.
8) Restricted playoffs: The North American division will have three rounds, the first a best of five series. The European division will have two rounds. There will then be a final series between NA and Eu in a seven game series. The early rounds are restricted and condensed to allow extra travel time for the finals.
Well, I think that is everything. Of course, I didn't look at how this will work out financially. My hope would be that in ten years, the European clubs are self-sustaining. This could open the door for a rival NA league in the abandoned markets. Talent dilution could be a problem. I welcome comments.
Monday, April 21, 2008
Champions Hockey League
It came to my attention that last year the NHL Board of Govenors discussed expansion of the NHL. But not in North America, in Europe. I like this idea and maybe in another post I'll detail how I think the NHL should expand into Europe. However, I am not going to talk about this today. I want to talk about the Champions Hockey League.
A week or so ago I was watching some Champions League (soccer) matches and wondered why the various hockey leagues in Europe didn't have a comparable league. I did some digging and found out that the Champions Hockey League is starting in October of 2008. This league, or tournament, will pit the best 24 club teams against one another in a two round qualification stage, a two round group stage, and then semi-finals and finals. I got excited about the prospect of seeing Swedish Elite teams running against Russian Super teams. Then I looked at the details and was a little deflated.
What I was hoping for was an extra post-season attached to all of the European leagues that would decide the European champion. This currently exists as the IIHF European Champions Cup. The participants in 2008 were Metallurg Magnitogorsk (RSL), MODO Hockey (SEL), HC Slovan Bratislava (Slovak EL), Karpat (Finish SML), HC Sparta Prague (CEL), and HC Davos (Swiss A League). The teams play a round robin format followed by a championship game. Metallurg Magnitogorsk defeated HC Sparta Prague. (Note: During the four years of this competition, it was hosted each time in St. Petersburg and it was always won by a Russian team.)
This is to be replaced by the Champions Hockey League. Here are the problems that I see with this league. It runs concurrently with the national level hockey leagues similar to the soccer Champions League. The problem I see here is what is the goal of the team? Is it to win the SEL Championship or to win the CHL Championship? Will players be held back? What does it mean for NHL prospects playing in European leagues? The second problem I have is that it lasts from October through January. It is a separate league, not a tournament. Some of the problems of one club team belonging to multiple leagues is listed above but is not exhaustive. A third problem I have is that the teams playing in the 2008 Champions season are determined by the results of the 2007 club season. The winner of the 2008 Champions league may not be the best team in Europe and may not even resemble the team from 2007, when it qualified.
There are some good points, to be sure. The long time frame would get fans more involved. It would also allow for more exposure and awareness of the quality of play. The additional games allows the purse to be larger for the participants. This should ensure a high level of quality of games.
Perhaps I have a bias against the club team system prevalent in Europe. There are more things that I dislike about the Champions Hockey League that I like. However, I will still take any pan-European play over no pan-European play. I would favor a European division of the NHL over both of these options. Stay tuned.
A week or so ago I was watching some Champions League (soccer) matches and wondered why the various hockey leagues in Europe didn't have a comparable league. I did some digging and found out that the Champions Hockey League is starting in October of 2008. This league, or tournament, will pit the best 24 club teams against one another in a two round qualification stage, a two round group stage, and then semi-finals and finals. I got excited about the prospect of seeing Swedish Elite teams running against Russian Super teams. Then I looked at the details and was a little deflated.
What I was hoping for was an extra post-season attached to all of the European leagues that would decide the European champion. This currently exists as the IIHF European Champions Cup. The participants in 2008 were Metallurg Magnitogorsk (RSL), MODO Hockey (SEL), HC Slovan Bratislava (Slovak EL), Karpat (Finish SML), HC Sparta Prague (CEL), and HC Davos (Swiss A League). The teams play a round robin format followed by a championship game. Metallurg Magnitogorsk defeated HC Sparta Prague. (Note: During the four years of this competition, it was hosted each time in St. Petersburg and it was always won by a Russian team.)
This is to be replaced by the Champions Hockey League. Here are the problems that I see with this league. It runs concurrently with the national level hockey leagues similar to the soccer Champions League. The problem I see here is what is the goal of the team? Is it to win the SEL Championship or to win the CHL Championship? Will players be held back? What does it mean for NHL prospects playing in European leagues? The second problem I have is that it lasts from October through January. It is a separate league, not a tournament. Some of the problems of one club team belonging to multiple leagues is listed above but is not exhaustive. A third problem I have is that the teams playing in the 2008 Champions season are determined by the results of the 2007 club season. The winner of the 2008 Champions league may not be the best team in Europe and may not even resemble the team from 2007, when it qualified.
There are some good points, to be sure. The long time frame would get fans more involved. It would also allow for more exposure and awareness of the quality of play. The additional games allows the purse to be larger for the participants. This should ensure a high level of quality of games.
Perhaps I have a bias against the club team system prevalent in Europe. There are more things that I dislike about the Champions Hockey League that I like. However, I will still take any pan-European play over no pan-European play. I would favor a European division of the NHL over both of these options. Stay tuned.
Monday, April 14, 2008
What to do with #4
On the very, very exciting live broadcast of the NHL draft lottery, the Blues did not win the lottery and will pick 4th overall in the draft. The question that immediately sprung to my mind, and no one else's, was 'Who will the Blues draft?'
To answer that questions, first I want to understand what the Blues need and how badly they need it. The Blues need scoring forwards, an offensive minded defenseman, scoring forwards, and scoring forwards.
The Blues definitely need an offensive minded defenseman but they might already have one or two for next season. Erik Johnson is going to be that it is just a matter of when. Will he be that next season or the season after? Jeff Woywitka and Steve Wagner also have the potential to be slick skating defenseman that can pass but neither will be great. Pass them, Jonas Junland has been mentioned but will be at least one more year away, maybe, probably, more (or maybe he is Christian Backman, part II). In two years, the Blues will have one elite defenseman, two offensive defensemen, and some shutdown defensemen. I don't see a burning need.
The Blues definitely need scoring forwards. In two years, the Blues will have these scoring forwards from their current team: Brad Boyes, Paul Kariya, David Perron, and Lee Stempniak. I believe Andy MacDonald's contract runs out after next year. I did not include David Backes because I am not convinced he is an offensive player and his contract is up (though should be extended this offseason). Definite prospects that will be here in two years only includes T.J Oshie and Patrik Berglund. (Nikolay Lemtyugov has some potential, Lars Eller might be ready but I figure he will be at Peoria that year, Nicholas Drazenovic is an unknown.) That is a total of six scoring forwards. By my estimation that would give the Blues one very good top line, a poor second line and then two checking lines. Without more scoring, the Blues will be exactly where they are today. The solution could be free agency but with the tight purse strings, I would not expect it. Regardless, there is a definite need.
Verdict: the Blues need scoring forwards more than they need offensive defensemen.
Having said that, there is an axiom in regards to drafting players: Always draft the best player available. If you want to draft to need, trade down in the draft and obtain an asset and the player you wanted.
If the Blues want a defenseman, hold onto the 4th pick and take the last of the big three defensemen (Doughty, Bogosian, Pietrangelo).
If the Blues want a forward, trade down and take Nikita Filatov, Kyle Beach, Colin Wilson, or Mikkel Boedker. The problem comes in finding a partner. Will Columbus or Toronto want to move up? If they do, the Blues are guaranteed a top forward. If they trade lower, to Phoenix or Florida, they will most likely miss out on Beach and Filatov.
If I were the Blues' GM, I would try to get a 2nd round pick from whichever team wants to move up and take one of the forwards in this order: Filatov, Beach, Boedker, Wilson.
Disclaimer: I have not seen any of these players myself and have formed opinions based only on what has been written by others. Whatever happens, I'm sure Jarmo will make the right choice, whether that coincides with my supposition or not.
To answer that questions, first I want to understand what the Blues need and how badly they need it. The Blues need scoring forwards, an offensive minded defenseman, scoring forwards, and scoring forwards.
The Blues definitely need an offensive minded defenseman but they might already have one or two for next season. Erik Johnson is going to be that it is just a matter of when. Will he be that next season or the season after? Jeff Woywitka and Steve Wagner also have the potential to be slick skating defenseman that can pass but neither will be great. Pass them, Jonas Junland has been mentioned but will be at least one more year away, maybe, probably, more (or maybe he is Christian Backman, part II). In two years, the Blues will have one elite defenseman, two offensive defensemen, and some shutdown defensemen. I don't see a burning need.
The Blues definitely need scoring forwards. In two years, the Blues will have these scoring forwards from their current team: Brad Boyes, Paul Kariya, David Perron, and Lee Stempniak. I believe Andy MacDonald's contract runs out after next year. I did not include David Backes because I am not convinced he is an offensive player and his contract is up (though should be extended this offseason). Definite prospects that will be here in two years only includes T.J Oshie and Patrik Berglund. (Nikolay Lemtyugov has some potential, Lars Eller might be ready but I figure he will be at Peoria that year, Nicholas Drazenovic is an unknown.) That is a total of six scoring forwards. By my estimation that would give the Blues one very good top line, a poor second line and then two checking lines. Without more scoring, the Blues will be exactly where they are today. The solution could be free agency but with the tight purse strings, I would not expect it. Regardless, there is a definite need.
Verdict: the Blues need scoring forwards more than they need offensive defensemen.
Having said that, there is an axiom in regards to drafting players: Always draft the best player available. If you want to draft to need, trade down in the draft and obtain an asset and the player you wanted.
If the Blues want a defenseman, hold onto the 4th pick and take the last of the big three defensemen (Doughty, Bogosian, Pietrangelo).
If the Blues want a forward, trade down and take Nikita Filatov, Kyle Beach, Colin Wilson, or Mikkel Boedker. The problem comes in finding a partner. Will Columbus or Toronto want to move up? If they do, the Blues are guaranteed a top forward. If they trade lower, to Phoenix or Florida, they will most likely miss out on Beach and Filatov.
If I were the Blues' GM, I would try to get a 2nd round pick from whichever team wants to move up and take one of the forwards in this order: Filatov, Beach, Boedker, Wilson.
Disclaimer: I have not seen any of these players myself and have formed opinions based only on what has been written by others. Whatever happens, I'm sure Jarmo will make the right choice, whether that coincides with my supposition or not.
Monday, April 7, 2008
They shoot Blues, don't they?
Well, I am going to give a report card. Though the season was a disappointment, I was not soured by it and find that looking back is a cathartic exercise and important to know where the team is headed. Without further ado, my second half report card:
Paul Kariya
82 games, 16 goals, 49 assists, 65 points
Grade: D
This the worst output that Paul has had in a full season since 2001 and even then he scored 32 goals. This is also the second straight year he has had a decline in production. He is in his mid-thirties now and this is most likely a trend. He is still talented and has good speed but is easily managed by the opponent's defense. He is no longer a first line player but gets those minutes with the Blues.
Brad Boyes
82 games, 43 goals, 22 assists, 65 points
Grade: A
Brad's previous career high had been 26 goals and this is the first season he has more goals than assists. He is definitely playing above his level. He has raised everyone's expectations and I now see him as a 30+/- goal per year player. He can play on the first line but does not seem to have the talent to make those around him better. He seems to play below his size.
Keith Tkachuk
79 games, 27 goals, 31 assists, 58 points
Grade: B
With the three goals in the last two games, Walt notched his 500th career goal. With 27 goals for the second straight year, he exceeded expectations slightly. He is a natural winger forced to play center on the first line. At times it showed as a lack of passion. He has played on the first line but is better as a second line power forward on the wing.
Andy MacDonald
82 games, 18 goals, 34 assists, 52 points
Grade: C
Acquired for Doug Weight midseason. He was a point per game player in the two previous years with Anaheim. But that was with Teemu Selanne on his wing, and I think everyone recognizes that. Briefly played on the first line but is better suited to the second. He is a good skater and passer but can be pushed off the puck by average sized defensemen. Having said that, 18 goals and 52 points is not going to cut for a second line center. I would need 20 and 60 from that spot.
Lee Stempniak
80 games, 13 goals, 25 assists, 38 points
Grade: D
Lee barely avoided an F grade. This is a fourteen goal drop from his previous year when he saw time on the top line. He started out the season on a line with Backes and McClement and then the rotation began. At first I saw this as the reason of his lack of production but as the season wore on, his play become much more evident as the cause. He deserved to be demoted to the third line. Lee can skate well, pass well, and shoot well; but when he doesn't do even one of those things well, combined with his lack of size, he is a sub-par player. 20 goals and 50 points is the high end of my expectations for him next year, if he is still here.
Erik Johnson
69 games, 5 goals, 28 assists, 33 points
Grade: A
Erik played very well for an NHL defenseman, not to mention he is a rookie. His play has gotten better and better as the season wore on and it won't be long before he is an elite defender. That is what has impressed me the most, the amount of progress that is actually visible in his play.
David Backes
72 games, 13 goals, 18 assists, 31 points
Grade: B
Though he has played better recently, I am not sold on him as a power forward. He skates well and plays to his size (which the Blues lack, in general) but he doesn't create his own chances and he often misses the chances he is given. I do, however, want to see a little more of him but, really, how much development time does he need?
Jamal Mayers
80 games, 12 goals, 15 assists, 27 points
Grade: C
Jamal is great as a checking line forward and is stellar on the penalty kill. This is what I expect from him. The -19 rating is curious, however.
David Perron
62 games, 13 goals, 14 assists, 27 points
Grade: B
David cooled off after a terrific start on the ice. There were rumors of off-ice attitude problems but those, we are assured, were overblown. He improved his defensive play and continued his great play down low in the offensive zone. He should have secured a second line role for next year.
Eric Brewer
77 games, 1 goal, 21 assists, 22 points
Grade: C
I believe that my expectatons of Brewer have been lowered to the point he has met them. He hasn't played any better than in the first half of the year. He has thrown a couple of hits but hasn't really made that aspect a part of this game. One goal is embarassing.
Jay McClement
81 games, 9 goals, 13 assists, 22 points
Grade: D
Any offensive aspects of his game have disappeared. He could be a good defensive forward but doesn't really play physical enough to excel at that role. He has been playing more on the PK. Is he being groomed to replace Ryan Johnson?
Ryan Johnson
79 games, 5 goals, 13 assists, 18 points
Grade: C
Ryan is very good at what he does. He is very valuable to a team that was 6th in the league in penalty killing. He is an UFA, however, and there are too many forwards on this team. I don't think he will be back.
Barret Jackman
78 games, 2 goals, 14 assists, 16 points
Grade: C
He has played better than in the first half of the season but still makes mistakes. He is forced to play on the power play when he has no business being out there. Plays bigger than he is and can throw some big checks.
Dan Hinote
58 games, 5 goals, 5 assists, 10 points
Grade: C
I'm still not exactly sure why he was signed. He is a decent enough fourth line forward but did we need another one?
Jay McKee
66 games, 2 goals, 7 assists, 9 points
Grade: C
Signed to be a core defenseman. He plays well enough at that role. He seems like a good skater and passer which makes me think he should be more offensive. Has thrown some good body checks.
Jeff Woywitka
27 games, 2 goals, 6 assists, 8 points
Grade: C
The other part of the Pronger trade (we won't mention Doug Lynch), Jeff essentially replaced Steve Wagner in the second half. He is a very good skater and not afraid to rush up the ice. The Blues need that in a defenseman.
DJ King
61 games, 3 goals, 3 assists, 6 points
Grade: C
The Blues' heavy. Fights very well.
Matt Walker
43 games, 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points
Grade: C
Didn't get much ice time in the first half of the season but ended up playing in more than half the games. His first goal, ever. A stay-at-home defenseman that uses his big body to punish forwards, Matt asked for a trade midseason because of the lack of ice time. He is not a liability defensively but cannot shutdown the opponent's top line.
Cam Janssen
12 games, 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point
Grade: C
Acquired for Bryce Salvador at the trade deadline. Why? I don't know. He is a local kid who likes to hit and fight. Fits on the fourth line but DJ King is better at fighting and Jamal Mayers is better at everything else.
Other players who spent time with the Blues this year: Doug Weight, Bryce Salvador, Martin Rucinsky, Mike Johnson, Steve Wagner (prospect), Yan Stastny, Roman Polak (prospect), Micki Dupont (2 games, when was this?), and Mike Glumac. Of these Steve Wagner and Roman Polak are the only ones who should compete for ice time next year. Yan Stastny might get a call up as a third liner but other high end prospects will most likely take precedent.
Overall, this was a bad year for the Blues. They finished with 2 fewer points than they did last year. Their offense is anemic and their defense has holes that only great goaltending covered up at the begining of the year.
Paul Kariya
82 games, 16 goals, 49 assists, 65 points
Grade: D
This the worst output that Paul has had in a full season since 2001 and even then he scored 32 goals. This is also the second straight year he has had a decline in production. He is in his mid-thirties now and this is most likely a trend. He is still talented and has good speed but is easily managed by the opponent's defense. He is no longer a first line player but gets those minutes with the Blues.
Brad Boyes
82 games, 43 goals, 22 assists, 65 points
Grade: A
Brad's previous career high had been 26 goals and this is the first season he has more goals than assists. He is definitely playing above his level. He has raised everyone's expectations and I now see him as a 30+/- goal per year player. He can play on the first line but does not seem to have the talent to make those around him better. He seems to play below his size.
Keith Tkachuk
79 games, 27 goals, 31 assists, 58 points
Grade: B
With the three goals in the last two games, Walt notched his 500th career goal. With 27 goals for the second straight year, he exceeded expectations slightly. He is a natural winger forced to play center on the first line. At times it showed as a lack of passion. He has played on the first line but is better as a second line power forward on the wing.
Andy MacDonald
82 games, 18 goals, 34 assists, 52 points
Grade: C
Acquired for Doug Weight midseason. He was a point per game player in the two previous years with Anaheim. But that was with Teemu Selanne on his wing, and I think everyone recognizes that. Briefly played on the first line but is better suited to the second. He is a good skater and passer but can be pushed off the puck by average sized defensemen. Having said that, 18 goals and 52 points is not going to cut for a second line center. I would need 20 and 60 from that spot.
Lee Stempniak
80 games, 13 goals, 25 assists, 38 points
Grade: D
Lee barely avoided an F grade. This is a fourteen goal drop from his previous year when he saw time on the top line. He started out the season on a line with Backes and McClement and then the rotation began. At first I saw this as the reason of his lack of production but as the season wore on, his play become much more evident as the cause. He deserved to be demoted to the third line. Lee can skate well, pass well, and shoot well; but when he doesn't do even one of those things well, combined with his lack of size, he is a sub-par player. 20 goals and 50 points is the high end of my expectations for him next year, if he is still here.
Erik Johnson
69 games, 5 goals, 28 assists, 33 points
Grade: A
Erik played very well for an NHL defenseman, not to mention he is a rookie. His play has gotten better and better as the season wore on and it won't be long before he is an elite defender. That is what has impressed me the most, the amount of progress that is actually visible in his play.
David Backes
72 games, 13 goals, 18 assists, 31 points
Grade: B
Though he has played better recently, I am not sold on him as a power forward. He skates well and plays to his size (which the Blues lack, in general) but he doesn't create his own chances and he often misses the chances he is given. I do, however, want to see a little more of him but, really, how much development time does he need?
Jamal Mayers
80 games, 12 goals, 15 assists, 27 points
Grade: C
Jamal is great as a checking line forward and is stellar on the penalty kill. This is what I expect from him. The -19 rating is curious, however.
David Perron
62 games, 13 goals, 14 assists, 27 points
Grade: B
David cooled off after a terrific start on the ice. There were rumors of off-ice attitude problems but those, we are assured, were overblown. He improved his defensive play and continued his great play down low in the offensive zone. He should have secured a second line role for next year.
Eric Brewer
77 games, 1 goal, 21 assists, 22 points
Grade: C
I believe that my expectatons of Brewer have been lowered to the point he has met them. He hasn't played any better than in the first half of the year. He has thrown a couple of hits but hasn't really made that aspect a part of this game. One goal is embarassing.
Jay McClement
81 games, 9 goals, 13 assists, 22 points
Grade: D
Any offensive aspects of his game have disappeared. He could be a good defensive forward but doesn't really play physical enough to excel at that role. He has been playing more on the PK. Is he being groomed to replace Ryan Johnson?
Ryan Johnson
79 games, 5 goals, 13 assists, 18 points
Grade: C
Ryan is very good at what he does. He is very valuable to a team that was 6th in the league in penalty killing. He is an UFA, however, and there are too many forwards on this team. I don't think he will be back.
Barret Jackman
78 games, 2 goals, 14 assists, 16 points
Grade: C
He has played better than in the first half of the season but still makes mistakes. He is forced to play on the power play when he has no business being out there. Plays bigger than he is and can throw some big checks.
Dan Hinote
58 games, 5 goals, 5 assists, 10 points
Grade: C
I'm still not exactly sure why he was signed. He is a decent enough fourth line forward but did we need another one?
Jay McKee
66 games, 2 goals, 7 assists, 9 points
Grade: C
Signed to be a core defenseman. He plays well enough at that role. He seems like a good skater and passer which makes me think he should be more offensive. Has thrown some good body checks.
Jeff Woywitka
27 games, 2 goals, 6 assists, 8 points
Grade: C
The other part of the Pronger trade (we won't mention Doug Lynch), Jeff essentially replaced Steve Wagner in the second half. He is a very good skater and not afraid to rush up the ice. The Blues need that in a defenseman.
DJ King
61 games, 3 goals, 3 assists, 6 points
Grade: C
The Blues' heavy. Fights very well.
Matt Walker
43 games, 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points
Grade: C
Didn't get much ice time in the first half of the season but ended up playing in more than half the games. His first goal, ever. A stay-at-home defenseman that uses his big body to punish forwards, Matt asked for a trade midseason because of the lack of ice time. He is not a liability defensively but cannot shutdown the opponent's top line.
Cam Janssen
12 games, 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point
Grade: C
Acquired for Bryce Salvador at the trade deadline. Why? I don't know. He is a local kid who likes to hit and fight. Fits on the fourth line but DJ King is better at fighting and Jamal Mayers is better at everything else.
Other players who spent time with the Blues this year: Doug Weight, Bryce Salvador, Martin Rucinsky, Mike Johnson, Steve Wagner (prospect), Yan Stastny, Roman Polak (prospect), Micki Dupont (2 games, when was this?), and Mike Glumac. Of these Steve Wagner and Roman Polak are the only ones who should compete for ice time next year. Yan Stastny might get a call up as a third liner but other high end prospects will most likely take precedent.
Overall, this was a bad year for the Blues. They finished with 2 fewer points than they did last year. Their offense is anemic and their defense has holes that only great goaltending covered up at the begining of the year.
Thursday, April 3, 2008
It's Almost Over
On Sunday the nightmare will end. There will be no tears, no rants, no outbursts of any kind. Just the sweet relief that the death of this horrible f***ing nightmare of a season will bring.
In the coming days everyone in Blues nation will have a report card on each of the players and coaches/management. I am not going to do one. I am not going to waste my time writing again about how Jay McClement sucks, or Backes has hands of stone, or blah blah blah. I knew from the start the Blues had a bad offense and we complained about it here often. There no sense in rehashing the same old garbage.
The draft lottery is Monday so we will know then in what position the Blues will draft (hopefully first!). Look towards the future and forget this season. My next post will be my blueprint for the Blues future and what they have to do to get it done.
As for this year, the pain is almost over.
In the coming days everyone in Blues nation will have a report card on each of the players and coaches/management. I am not going to do one. I am not going to waste my time writing again about how Jay McClement sucks, or Backes has hands of stone, or blah blah blah. I knew from the start the Blues had a bad offense and we complained about it here often. There no sense in rehashing the same old garbage.
The draft lottery is Monday so we will know then in what position the Blues will draft (hopefully first!). Look towards the future and forget this season. My next post will be my blueprint for the Blues future and what they have to do to get it done.
As for this year, the pain is almost over.
Friday, March 21, 2008
Perron and Johnson
This season is a disappointment. The tact the team has recently taken is to get behind by two or three goals early by playing piss pour and then dominating the second half of the game only to fall short. It is desappointing but not completely disheartening. The fact that the Blues can play well and at times dominate their opponents is a good sign. They just need to find that consistently for 60 minutes a night. The question is whether they can do that.
The rookie seasons for David Perron and Erik Johnson have been as good as could have been hoped for. Both started out playing well and only got better from then on (even if the numbers aren't there for Perron). There was been much written lately on the handling of the two players (precipitated by David playing less than 6 minutes in Montreal). But if you look at their individual performances at the begining of the year and now (and not necessarily at team performance or the stats), it cannot be argued that they are not better players now. Playing the rookies part time has worked. This might be the solution to next year as TJ Oshie is expected to play in the NHL and Patrik Berglund will come to North America (whether in the NHL or AHL is yet to be determined). If these two players are rotated into the lineup, perhaps with a third player, onto the third line, they would probably play 2/3 of the season. Not far off from what David has played. This might also allow the Blues to keep more forwards (as there is a glut of them) if it is understood that they won't be full time players.
The rookie seasons for David Perron and Erik Johnson have been as good as could have been hoped for. Both started out playing well and only got better from then on (even if the numbers aren't there for Perron). There was been much written lately on the handling of the two players (precipitated by David playing less than 6 minutes in Montreal). But if you look at their individual performances at the begining of the year and now (and not necessarily at team performance or the stats), it cannot be argued that they are not better players now. Playing the rookies part time has worked. This might be the solution to next year as TJ Oshie is expected to play in the NHL and Patrik Berglund will come to North America (whether in the NHL or AHL is yet to be determined). If these two players are rotated into the lineup, perhaps with a third player, onto the third line, they would probably play 2/3 of the season. Not far off from what David has played. This might also allow the Blues to keep more forwards (as there is a glut of them) if it is understood that they won't be full time players.
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Hockey's Future Top 20 Blues Prospects
http://www.hockeysfuture.com/articles/10234/blues_top20_prospects_spring2008/
I'm cheating a little bit but there is no way I could form an opinion and track all of the Blues top prospects. I like that Drazenovic is ranked but would like to know how Hellstrom compares to the other defensemen on the list.
I'm cheating a little bit but there is no way I could form an opinion and track all of the Blues top prospects. I like that Drazenovic is ranked but would like to know how Hellstrom compares to the other defensemen on the list.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
13 Left
The Blues got smoked last night. The goaltenders looked bad. Though the power play scored, they also gave up two shorties. The team continues to spiral down the standings and are now tied for third worst in the league. If the Blues are within the worst five, they have a shot at the No. 1 overall pick. The concensus is that Steve Stamkos will be the No. 1 overall pick, regardless of who picks there. He is a 6'1" center who wieghs 185 lbs. If the Blues don't pick first, I hope they go for a forward. In that case watch for Jan Kovar who plays in the Czech Republic and is highly rated. (EDIT: He is 5'8" and weighs 136 lbs. Maybe a later round pick but the Blues don't need any more smurfs.)
After starting so fast, it looks like the Blues will finish below their record last year. What does this mean? I think it means the Blues were playing above their late last season and earlier this season. I also think that the Blues are playing below their level right now, though the season long slump of Stempniak (the only player to have a down year all year long) is worrying. The Blues management will have a lot of questions this offseason that will need answering if they are to progress.
After starting so fast, it looks like the Blues will finish below their record last year. What does this mean? I think it means the Blues were playing above their late last season and earlier this season. I also think that the Blues are playing below their level right now, though the season long slump of Stempniak (the only player to have a down year all year long) is worrying. The Blues management will have a lot of questions this offseason that will need answering if they are to progress.
Monday, March 3, 2008
The Home-run Pass Doesn't Work
The Blues were shut out again. One 'play' that has really started by confound me is the preponderance of the home-run pass by the defense to a lone forward at the opposing blue line. Often the pass doesn't connect and it serves as a dump in to change lines and lose possession. The times that it does connect, the lone Blues forward is surrounded by four opponents with no shot of reaching the net or a good shooting position and the result is a loss of possession. I would much rather watch the defense sit behind his net and wait for the line change instead of throwing the puck away.
At the begining of the season, I thought the Blues would finish out of the playoffs by 2-4 points. The Blues will have to finish strong to get to that point. They are now 14th in the Western Conference. I view this season as a step back from last year. The team finished strong last year and started this year strong. Then they went into a nose dive. This leads me to believe that the improvement we saw wasn't real or that the Blues are now bad for different reasons. Neither option is appealling. The Blues are now looking at a top five draft pick. I am not excited by this. Eventually, you have to have a good product on the ice. The Blues, by the trade deadline next year, should have been in a position to trade picks/prospects away for developed players. I don't see that happening now and fear that the Blues might fall into a perpetual cycle of rebuilding.
At the begining of the season, I thought the Blues would finish out of the playoffs by 2-4 points. The Blues will have to finish strong to get to that point. They are now 14th in the Western Conference. I view this season as a step back from last year. The team finished strong last year and started this year strong. Then they went into a nose dive. This leads me to believe that the improvement we saw wasn't real or that the Blues are now bad for different reasons. Neither option is appealling. The Blues are now looking at a top five draft pick. I am not excited by this. Eventually, you have to have a good product on the ice. The Blues, by the trade deadline next year, should have been in a position to trade picks/prospects away for developed players. I don't see that happening now and fear that the Blues might fall into a perpetual cycle of rebuilding.
Friday, February 29, 2008
Maddening
The Blues lost 2-1 last night after outshooting the Phoenix Coyotes 42-26. The Blues are 0-4-1 in their last five and have scored four goals in that span. The lack of scoring has become maddening. They just do not have a good goal scorer. There is no one on this team that will be a consistent 30+ goal scorer (Brad Boyes is playing above his level; too early for Perron) and it is killing this team. It doesn't look to get better in the near future. Next year, Perron will be a year older but Tkachuk and Kariya will be a year older as well. TJ Oshie will be added to the team but he is untested and unproven.
The Blues will clear approximately $15 million in salary from expiring and/or traded contracts and this includes the salary increases for players like Tkachuk, Stempniak and Jackman. (I looked at the actual salaries, not the salary cap numbers. Checketts wants to be breakeven next year so I used real world numbers, which will be driving the decision.) But nineteen players will have to be replaced (includes both NHL and AHL players) or resigned. Players like Brad Boyes ($3 million), David Backes ($800k), Ryan Johnson ($1 million), Jay McClement ($800k), Jeff Woywitka ($1 million), and Hannu Toivonen ($700k) will be resigned. Collegiate prospects like TJ Oshie and Ben Bishop will have to be signed. Eleven roster slots (in both the NHL and AHL) will be open after these are signed and ~$6 million left in the budget.
Conservatively, let's say the Blues somehow clear $4 million after resigning/signing 18 players to the 19 open slots (we won't mention that the Blues are $6 million over budget because they signed Kariya). What high end goal scorer will sign with the Blues at $4 million or less? It has already been discussed on the stltoday boards that the FA crop this summer will be thin. That will inflate salaries higher than last year. Expect next year to be another year of offensive futility.
The Blues will clear approximately $15 million in salary from expiring and/or traded contracts and this includes the salary increases for players like Tkachuk, Stempniak and Jackman. (I looked at the actual salaries, not the salary cap numbers. Checketts wants to be breakeven next year so I used real world numbers, which will be driving the decision.) But nineteen players will have to be replaced (includes both NHL and AHL players) or resigned. Players like Brad Boyes ($3 million), David Backes ($800k), Ryan Johnson ($1 million), Jay McClement ($800k), Jeff Woywitka ($1 million), and Hannu Toivonen ($700k) will be resigned. Collegiate prospects like TJ Oshie and Ben Bishop will have to be signed. Eleven roster slots (in both the NHL and AHL) will be open after these are signed and ~$6 million left in the budget.
Conservatively, let's say the Blues somehow clear $4 million after resigning/signing 18 players to the 19 open slots (we won't mention that the Blues are $6 million over budget because they signed Kariya). What high end goal scorer will sign with the Blues at $4 million or less? It has already been discussed on the stltoday boards that the FA crop this summer will be thin. That will inflate salaries higher than last year. Expect next year to be another year of offensive futility.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Deadline Aftermath
The Blues made three moves on Deadline Day. They signed Barret Jackman to a four year deal. They dealt Christian Backman for a 4th round pick. They dealt Bryce Salvador for Cam Janssen.
The Backman deal is easy to analyze. It is a salary dump. He is going to make in excess of $3 million next year (salary cap hit in the mid $2 million range) for a marginal player. Because of his large salary and his underperformance, he was worth only a mid-round pick and that's what the Blues got. The Blues got rid of an overpaid player, opened salary space for signings, and opened a roster slot for a young player. Not a bad deal.
The Jackman deal is also easy to analyze. He is a young (not yet 27 years old), tough player who started out the season poorly. He has played better lately but not up to his potential. And the Blues are paying a little for his potential. Four years and $3.6 million a year is quite significant for what he has brought this year. This ensures that the Blues will have a solid core of veterans (Jackman, McKee, and Brewer) to mentor the younger defensemen (Johnson, Woywitka, Wagner, and Polak) coming up (not to mention Al MacInnis).
The last deal, Salvador for Cam Janssen, is puzzling. With Backman being traded a slot opened up for Matt Walker and Jeff Woywitka to rotate in. (I was assuming that Wagner and Polak wouldn't make an appearance this year.) We could have kept Salvador and let him walk at the end of the year. I'm told that we would get a compensation pick if he signed for more than $3 million per year. Now two slots are open so Walker and Woywitka will play the rest of the season and perhaps Wagner or Polak will have to be called up. The other question is what is the value of Cam Janssen. I don't know him much except his stats. One goal in 95 NHL games. He is not a scorer. When John Davidson spoke about him, he described him as a young banger to free up space for the forwards. Besides the fact that we need scoring forwards, don't we already have those types of players?
Forwards who don't score on the Blues: Martin Rucinsky, Jamal Mayers, Dan Hinote, David Backes, Ryan Johnson, Jay McClement, and DJ King. Not one of these players has over ten goals this season. I didn't mention Mike Johnson (out with injury), Yan Stastny (too few games played), or Mike Glumac (too few games played). That is ten players who have played on the Blues who are not scoring threats. Three full lines. And now we add an eleventh. I'm not saying these players don't have value. Jamal Mayers and Ryan Johnson are outstanding defensive forwards and are key for the penalty kill. DJ King will beat the snot out of anyone. But how many do we need? Martin Rucinsky and Mike Johnson will be gone next year and Yan Stastny and Mike Glumac, in truth, are career minor leaguers. McClement and Backes are still thought of as potential scorers (but not by me). That would leave Jamal Mayers, Dan Hinote, Ryan Johnson, DJ King, and Cam Janssen fighting for time on the fourth line. Too many players. The only sense this acquisition would make is if one of these players didn't return. Ryan Johnson is an UFA.
The Backman deal is easy to analyze. It is a salary dump. He is going to make in excess of $3 million next year (salary cap hit in the mid $2 million range) for a marginal player. Because of his large salary and his underperformance, he was worth only a mid-round pick and that's what the Blues got. The Blues got rid of an overpaid player, opened salary space for signings, and opened a roster slot for a young player. Not a bad deal.
The Jackman deal is also easy to analyze. He is a young (not yet 27 years old), tough player who started out the season poorly. He has played better lately but not up to his potential. And the Blues are paying a little for his potential. Four years and $3.6 million a year is quite significant for what he has brought this year. This ensures that the Blues will have a solid core of veterans (Jackman, McKee, and Brewer) to mentor the younger defensemen (Johnson, Woywitka, Wagner, and Polak) coming up (not to mention Al MacInnis).
The last deal, Salvador for Cam Janssen, is puzzling. With Backman being traded a slot opened up for Matt Walker and Jeff Woywitka to rotate in. (I was assuming that Wagner and Polak wouldn't make an appearance this year.) We could have kept Salvador and let him walk at the end of the year. I'm told that we would get a compensation pick if he signed for more than $3 million per year. Now two slots are open so Walker and Woywitka will play the rest of the season and perhaps Wagner or Polak will have to be called up. The other question is what is the value of Cam Janssen. I don't know him much except his stats. One goal in 95 NHL games. He is not a scorer. When John Davidson spoke about him, he described him as a young banger to free up space for the forwards. Besides the fact that we need scoring forwards, don't we already have those types of players?
Forwards who don't score on the Blues: Martin Rucinsky, Jamal Mayers, Dan Hinote, David Backes, Ryan Johnson, Jay McClement, and DJ King. Not one of these players has over ten goals this season. I didn't mention Mike Johnson (out with injury), Yan Stastny (too few games played), or Mike Glumac (too few games played). That is ten players who have played on the Blues who are not scoring threats. Three full lines. And now we add an eleventh. I'm not saying these players don't have value. Jamal Mayers and Ryan Johnson are outstanding defensive forwards and are key for the penalty kill. DJ King will beat the snot out of anyone. But how many do we need? Martin Rucinsky and Mike Johnson will be gone next year and Yan Stastny and Mike Glumac, in truth, are career minor leaguers. McClement and Backes are still thought of as potential scorers (but not by me). That would leave Jamal Mayers, Dan Hinote, Ryan Johnson, DJ King, and Cam Janssen fighting for time on the fourth line. Too many players. The only sense this acquisition would make is if one of these players didn't return. Ryan Johnson is an UFA.
Monday, February 25, 2008
Sellers!
The Blues have just concluded a three game road trip in which they 'earned' one point. With 20 games left, they are 29 points from the playoff cutoff of 95 points that everyone now has to shoot for. They are also in twelfth place and six points back. There was a brief flicker of hope, as you can see from my last post. Now it is just the waiting to see who gets traded for whom and then to play out the string.
Trade deadline is tomorrow.
Trade deadline is tomorrow.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
On a Run
The Blues have gone 4-0-2 in their last six and now sit just three points back of Vancouver and Calgary who are tied for seventh in the conference with 68 points. This could be blessing, could be a curse. I most definitely want to see the Blues in the playoffs. Nothing compares to playoff hockey. (Last night's game came close, however.) It would also give the management something tangible to demonstrate the progress the team has made. This could, however, prevent any trades for the Blues.
It appears that the two biggest trade pieces that the Blues have include Barret Jackman and Bryce Salvador. Does a run at the playoffs preclude any deals involving these two players? Does it matter? Jaroslav Modry was recently traded to Philadelphia for a 3rd round pick. Both Bryce and Barret have more value than Modry but that sets the bar very low. Would a second round pick be worth either Barret or Bryce? Perhaps, perhaps, one but not both. That would lead me to believe they will be kept.
With Backman's injury, the speculation on his future has died down. Speculation has picked up on Lee Stempniak being traded as part of a package for a young forward. The Blues will very soon have a glut of mid-level prospects or young veterans(high level prospects go immediately to the head of the line) and they will have to clear some room. There won't be room for the former kid line of Stempniak, McClement, and Backes in addition to Linglet and Lemtyugov not to mention Stastny (who has played well), Martin Kariya, or Mike Glumac. Decisions will have to be made.
The word on the street (yeah, that's right. I said it) is that Alex Tanguay is on the block. Could be a great first line guy. He is underperforming this year (11 goals but 45 points; think Andy MacDonald but taller) and is making $5+ million dollars this year and next. That salary would be tough to swallow. I don't think I would give up much to get him.
There was a hiccup in my logon name that prevented posting. All cleared up now.
It appears that the two biggest trade pieces that the Blues have include Barret Jackman and Bryce Salvador. Does a run at the playoffs preclude any deals involving these two players? Does it matter? Jaroslav Modry was recently traded to Philadelphia for a 3rd round pick. Both Bryce and Barret have more value than Modry but that sets the bar very low. Would a second round pick be worth either Barret or Bryce? Perhaps, perhaps, one but not both. That would lead me to believe they will be kept.
With Backman's injury, the speculation on his future has died down. Speculation has picked up on Lee Stempniak being traded as part of a package for a young forward. The Blues will very soon have a glut of mid-level prospects or young veterans(high level prospects go immediately to the head of the line) and they will have to clear some room. There won't be room for the former kid line of Stempniak, McClement, and Backes in addition to Linglet and Lemtyugov not to mention Stastny (who has played well), Martin Kariya, or Mike Glumac. Decisions will have to be made.
The word on the street (yeah, that's right. I said it) is that Alex Tanguay is on the block. Could be a great first line guy. He is underperforming this year (11 goals but 45 points; think Andy MacDonald but taller) and is making $5+ million dollars this year and next. That salary would be tough to swallow. I don't think I would give up much to get him.
There was a hiccup in my logon name that prevented posting. All cleared up now.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Uglier and Uglier
The Blues are now 8 points from the final playoff spot in the West and five points from the worst record in the league. That's right, the Blues are closer to the bottom than the playoffs. I didn't expect that. In another post, I stated that I expected them to finish 2-4 points out of the playoffs. Than means they would have ~90 points for the season. The currently have 56 points and 28 games left. That estimation now appears optimistic.
In rumors today, the Blues will be trading Barrett Jackman, possibly to New York. The last time there was this much movement on a Blues rumor, it was speculated that Forsberg was close to signing. How does that look now.
Nothing much to do now but enjoy the games for the competition and wait for the offseason.
In rumors today, the Blues will be trading Barrett Jackman, possibly to New York. The last time there was this much movement on a Blues rumor, it was speculated that Forsberg was close to signing. How does that look now.
Nothing much to do now but enjoy the games for the competition and wait for the offseason.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Now 6 Points Out
Well, the Blues lost last night to Tampa Bay. The worst team in the East. Outstanding. They now sit six points out of the last playoff spot, which is occupied by Nashville and Colorado (tied in points). This hurt because at least two of the Tampa goals were flukey goals that were just thrown at the net and went in.
Woywitka made mistakes but that is not unexpected. I hope that he gets more than one game to show his worth. I see him and Wagner as the same type of player. They are both the same size and are mobile defensemen who are going to be counted on to be offensive. They are the same age as well but others claim Woywitka is more polished, which wouldn't be surprising as he spent his time in professional leagues while Wagner went to college.
I am worried about Stempniak. He is now being buried on the third line with McClement and King. Perhaps went Rucinsky comes back Stempniak will have someone to play with but for now, this won't get it done.
Woywitka made mistakes but that is not unexpected. I hope that he gets more than one game to show his worth. I see him and Wagner as the same type of player. They are both the same size and are mobile defensemen who are going to be counted on to be offensive. They are the same age as well but others claim Woywitka is more polished, which wouldn't be surprising as he spent his time in professional leagues while Wagner went to college.
I am worried about Stempniak. He is now being buried on the third line with McClement and King. Perhaps went Rucinsky comes back Stempniak will have someone to play with but for now, this won't get it done.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
1 Nerd's Blues Blog
I just want to thank Kyle for keeping the effort up on this blog while I handle my cross-country move. I haven't forgotten about my Blues. I actually have a lot of pent up Blues fan energy I need to get onto this thing. Once I get settled It'll be business as usual.
In the meantime, GO BLUES!
In the meantime, GO BLUES!
The Home Stretch
The post ASG rush begins tonight. Like a million other people, I thought I would give my opinions on the Blues players as we look forward. I will grade each player based on my expectations at the begining of the season.
Paul Kariya - B
I didn't know quite what to expect but I knew he had been a point per game player. He has been that and he has made others around him better, which makes him exceed my expectations. But at only 12 goals and horrible power play, for which he holds some responsibility, means he doesn't get the A.
Brad Boyes - A
I expected Brad to score 25+/- goals on the season. He has well exceeded those expectations, scoring 29 goals to this date. But he is just a sniper, not a playmaker and his lack of assists bears that out.
Keith Tkachuk - C
I expected a 20+ season from him with some rough play. Guess what. He is on pace to score 20+ goals and plays a good checking and defensive game.
Andy McDonald - C
I am kind of punting this decision. Andy was a midseason acquisition. He has played well but the team has not. Do the Blues miss Doug Weight?
Lee Stempniak - D
I am a little disappointed in The General. I expected a 25+/- goal season from him with a little more playmaking ability than Brad Boyes. He is on pace to score less than 20 goals. That might be a result of Lee playing on the third line most of the season with only about a third of the year on the second line. But those are excuses. If you are a good player, you need to produce.
David Perron - B
David is the sixth leading scorer on a bad offensive team. He should score between 15 and 20 goals and double that number of points. A good start to a, hopefully, long career.
Erik Johnson - C
His good performance hasn't surprised me. He plays a solid game but isn't yet dominant (I don't know if he will get there). His 13 assists is a little better than I expected but not enough to bump up to a B.
Jamal Mayers - C
Jamal plays a great game. Is very good on the checking line and is stellar on the penalty kill. This is what I have come to expect from him.
David Backes - C
He is what he is. This is only his first full year (though he is not a rookie) but I think he has fulfilled his potential. A mediocre third line player. What Jeff calls a 'plumber'.
Eric Brewer - D
It's not that he has played badly. It's just that he hasn't played well every single game. I have, long ago, given up on him being a dominant defensemen. But he should play better and more consistently. Offensively, he has fewer points than Erik Johnson. I expect more.
Jay McClement - D
He hasn't played any worse than Backes but I thought that he would play better than him. I was hopeful that he would be put on the checking line with RJ and Jamal and that he would shine. He hasn't. He is falling into the category of plumber.
Christian Backman - D
One goal, nine assists, minus two. He is bigger than I assumed at the start of the season (6'4"). Someone needs to sit him down and show him Eric Brewer or Erik Johnson make a rush. I don't think I've ever seen him do that. He needs to be more aggressive in all aspects of his game.
Martin Rucinsky - D
He's injured. Never a good start. I assumed 10+ goals and adds some speed to a third line. Has three goals so far. A plumber with a little extra speed.
Ryan Johnson - B
He is filling the role that I expect but he is doing it better than I thought he would. He and Jamal are a joy to watch because they are so good at what they do. He's a keeper.
Bryce Salvador - B
Bryce is a stay at home defensemen and he plays that role well. I have been expecting the increased speed of the league to negate his abilities. That hasn't happened and his play has bordered between good and great. (In the defensive zone, he provides no offense.)
Steve Wagner - B
Back in the lineup tonight. Moves the puck well. Skates well. I would like to see more aggression when he checks because he is bigger than he plays (6'2", 200 lbs.).
Dan Hinote - C
Another plumber. Not much else to say.
Jay McKee - B
He's not injured; that's a good start. Signed to be a core defensive defensemen and a 'shot-blocker'. He plays well, will check forwards. He can skate a little and pass a little.
Barrett Jackman - C
Plays bigger than he is. No offensive contribution. A tough grinder and can throw down but I see him chase a little bit and perhaps too aggressive and takes penalties. His +/- rating is alarming.
Mike Johnson - D
Hurt plumber.
DJ King - B
Wasn't expecting too much from him. He is overmatched most shifts but not all. He is the Blues' heavy. The two goals just about guaranteed his above expectation rating.
Matt Walker - C
I have been pulling for him since the first couple of games when he looked real good out there. He has come back down to earth. He is not a top 4 defenseman but is not a liability. He is very physical but gets nervous when he is carrying the puck and tends to get rid of it immediately instead of looking for the best play.
I did look at the goalies but quite a bit has been said about them already. There were eight positives and six negatives. One nice surprise and no big let downs. What is now glaring is the lack of a shutdown defenseman. Will Erik Johnson be that? When will he be that? Paul Kariya is the only All Star caliber forward the Blues have. Their top line of PK-AM-BB is good, not great, and can be physically manhandled. There is no stable second line from game to game or even shift to shift. I think this is a big detriment. I favor the PerWaltNiak line and think Lee Stempniak has been wronged by playing on the third line most of the season. There are five forwards (those deemed 'plumbers') I would punt from the team to try and cycle in young players and establish a third scoring line. I really like the JM-RJ-DJK checking line. Perhaps McClement can be dropped to that line and cycle in DJK game to game.
Paul Kariya - B
I didn't know quite what to expect but I knew he had been a point per game player. He has been that and he has made others around him better, which makes him exceed my expectations. But at only 12 goals and horrible power play, for which he holds some responsibility, means he doesn't get the A.
Brad Boyes - A
I expected Brad to score 25+/- goals on the season. He has well exceeded those expectations, scoring 29 goals to this date. But he is just a sniper, not a playmaker and his lack of assists bears that out.
Keith Tkachuk - C
I expected a 20+ season from him with some rough play. Guess what. He is on pace to score 20+ goals and plays a good checking and defensive game.
Andy McDonald - C
I am kind of punting this decision. Andy was a midseason acquisition. He has played well but the team has not. Do the Blues miss Doug Weight?
Lee Stempniak - D
I am a little disappointed in The General. I expected a 25+/- goal season from him with a little more playmaking ability than Brad Boyes. He is on pace to score less than 20 goals. That might be a result of Lee playing on the third line most of the season with only about a third of the year on the second line. But those are excuses. If you are a good player, you need to produce.
David Perron - B
David is the sixth leading scorer on a bad offensive team. He should score between 15 and 20 goals and double that number of points. A good start to a, hopefully, long career.
Erik Johnson - C
His good performance hasn't surprised me. He plays a solid game but isn't yet dominant (I don't know if he will get there). His 13 assists is a little better than I expected but not enough to bump up to a B.
Jamal Mayers - C
Jamal plays a great game. Is very good on the checking line and is stellar on the penalty kill. This is what I have come to expect from him.
David Backes - C
He is what he is. This is only his first full year (though he is not a rookie) but I think he has fulfilled his potential. A mediocre third line player. What Jeff calls a 'plumber'.
Eric Brewer - D
It's not that he has played badly. It's just that he hasn't played well every single game. I have, long ago, given up on him being a dominant defensemen. But he should play better and more consistently. Offensively, he has fewer points than Erik Johnson. I expect more.
Jay McClement - D
He hasn't played any worse than Backes but I thought that he would play better than him. I was hopeful that he would be put on the checking line with RJ and Jamal and that he would shine. He hasn't. He is falling into the category of plumber.
Christian Backman - D
One goal, nine assists, minus two. He is bigger than I assumed at the start of the season (6'4"). Someone needs to sit him down and show him Eric Brewer or Erik Johnson make a rush. I don't think I've ever seen him do that. He needs to be more aggressive in all aspects of his game.
Martin Rucinsky - D
He's injured. Never a good start. I assumed 10+ goals and adds some speed to a third line. Has three goals so far. A plumber with a little extra speed.
Ryan Johnson - B
He is filling the role that I expect but he is doing it better than I thought he would. He and Jamal are a joy to watch because they are so good at what they do. He's a keeper.
Bryce Salvador - B
Bryce is a stay at home defensemen and he plays that role well. I have been expecting the increased speed of the league to negate his abilities. That hasn't happened and his play has bordered between good and great. (In the defensive zone, he provides no offense.)
Steve Wagner - B
Back in the lineup tonight. Moves the puck well. Skates well. I would like to see more aggression when he checks because he is bigger than he plays (6'2", 200 lbs.).
Dan Hinote - C
Another plumber. Not much else to say.
Jay McKee - B
He's not injured; that's a good start. Signed to be a core defensive defensemen and a 'shot-blocker'. He plays well, will check forwards. He can skate a little and pass a little.
Barrett Jackman - C
Plays bigger than he is. No offensive contribution. A tough grinder and can throw down but I see him chase a little bit and perhaps too aggressive and takes penalties. His +/- rating is alarming.
Mike Johnson - D
Hurt plumber.
DJ King - B
Wasn't expecting too much from him. He is overmatched most shifts but not all. He is the Blues' heavy. The two goals just about guaranteed his above expectation rating.
Matt Walker - C
I have been pulling for him since the first couple of games when he looked real good out there. He has come back down to earth. He is not a top 4 defenseman but is not a liability. He is very physical but gets nervous when he is carrying the puck and tends to get rid of it immediately instead of looking for the best play.
I did look at the goalies but quite a bit has been said about them already. There were eight positives and six negatives. One nice surprise and no big let downs. What is now glaring is the lack of a shutdown defenseman. Will Erik Johnson be that? When will he be that? Paul Kariya is the only All Star caliber forward the Blues have. Their top line of PK-AM-BB is good, not great, and can be physically manhandled. There is no stable second line from game to game or even shift to shift. I think this is a big detriment. I favor the PerWaltNiak line and think Lee Stempniak has been wronged by playing on the third line most of the season. There are five forwards (those deemed 'plumbers') I would punt from the team to try and cycle in young players and establish a third scoring line. I really like the JM-RJ-DJK checking line. Perhaps McClement can be dropped to that line and cycle in DJK game to game.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Effort
The Blues lost to the Canucks in a shootout. They did not score on four tries. The Blues did score on the powerplay but also gave up two powerplay goals. There are problems with this team and at first I thought that they were outworked by the Canucks. The Canucks spent far more time in the offensive zone than did the Blues. The Blues seem to always be chasing. Then two things I noticed changed my mind. The first was a moment when a Canucks player had the puck behind the net. No Blues player was on him. He was standing there. The Blues were trying to cover their men while one Blue defender stayed in front of the net. The second event was the overtime. The Blues never had possession of the puck it seemed. Four minutes of the five minute overtime were spent in the Blues zone.
These two things make me think the Blues' problem is not effort. It is a combination of coaching and skill. The style of coaching, for lack of a better term, is to stress a cover defense. Each opposing player is covered by a Blue all the time. There were no double teams in the defensive zone that might have caused a turn over. This means that the Canucks are always playing one-on-one in the defensive zone. There is bound to be slipped coverage or mismatch which will lead to a great scoring opportunity. It also means the Blues aren't chasing the puck but other players. The second is that the Blues lack high-end skill players. There are only two players that I would say handle the puck well - Kariya and MacDonald - but they are too small to carry it for long. (Perron shows great promise here. Great hands and seems strong enough to go into the corners.) There are others who handle it adequately - Stempniak, Boyes, etc. - but that won't get them past defenders.
All this means is that the Blues can't create their own scoring opportunities. They have to wait for a mistake or breakdown in their opponents. They cannot dictate play. This is very dangerous and why they are not a good team, even as hard as Manny tries.
These two things make me think the Blues' problem is not effort. It is a combination of coaching and skill. The style of coaching, for lack of a better term, is to stress a cover defense. Each opposing player is covered by a Blue all the time. There were no double teams in the defensive zone that might have caused a turn over. This means that the Canucks are always playing one-on-one in the defensive zone. There is bound to be slipped coverage or mismatch which will lead to a great scoring opportunity. It also means the Blues aren't chasing the puck but other players. The second is that the Blues lack high-end skill players. There are only two players that I would say handle the puck well - Kariya and MacDonald - but they are too small to carry it for long. (Perron shows great promise here. Great hands and seems strong enough to go into the corners.) There are others who handle it adequately - Stempniak, Boyes, etc. - but that won't get them past defenders.
All this means is that the Blues can't create their own scoring opportunities. They have to wait for a mistake or breakdown in their opponents. They cannot dictate play. This is very dangerous and why they are not a good team, even as hard as Manny tries.
Monday, January 21, 2008
The Slide Continues
The Blues now sit in 10th in the Western Conference and are five points out of a playoff slot. The Blues have looked like a good team because they had great goaltending. They covered up the misplays by the defensemen and the lack of back checking by some forwards. Now the goaltending is mediocre to bad and the Blues are being blown out of games.
The Blues will not make the playoffs. If they pick up their play, they will finish about where they are at now, 10th in the West. If they don't, they will continue to sink in the standings. That is not a wholly bad thing. While it is hard to watch, this is still a rebuilding year (hopefully the last). The Blues need to clear out some plumbers (as someone else on this blog likes to say) for more talent before they think about making a run at and in the playoffs.
The Blues will not make the playoffs. If they pick up their play, they will finish about where they are at now, 10th in the West. If they don't, they will continue to sink in the standings. That is not a wholly bad thing. While it is hard to watch, this is still a rebuilding year (hopefully the last). The Blues need to clear out some plumbers (as someone else on this blog likes to say) for more talent before they think about making a run at and in the playoffs.
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Hannu the Minor League Starting Goaltender
It appears that my enthusiasm for Hannu's play was premature. He has been sent down to Peoria to 'see some pucks'. He has been terrible lately. Some very soft goals against Columbus. In the last four games, his save percentage was around .850 and his goals against was above 4. How long he stays there is anyone's guess. Marek Schwarz has been called up as the backup. It is doubtful that he will play at all. He was been mediocre at best down in Peoria and lost the starting job to Chris Beckford-Tseu (who has an ECHL-AHL contract but not an NHL contract). Ben Bishop can't get here fast enough.
I think the Blues are going to come up just short this year for the playoffs. They are currently in 9th in the Western Conference. It is true that they have games in hand, but if look at their record, it isn't pretty. Their record is 22-21 for the season, or essentially .500. With 8 of 15 teams in each conference making the playoffs, the Blues should be in with a .500 record. But there are two things that work against them. The Western Conference has beat up on the Eastern this year. So all of the Western records should be skewed higher. The second is their horrible OT/SO record. I believe the Blues are 1-6 in overtime/shootouts. They are giving extra points away. This will cause them to miss the playoffs.
I think the Blues are going to come up just short this year for the playoffs. They are currently in 9th in the Western Conference. It is true that they have games in hand, but if look at their record, it isn't pretty. Their record is 22-21 for the season, or essentially .500. With 8 of 15 teams in each conference making the playoffs, the Blues should be in with a .500 record. But there are two things that work against them. The Western Conference has beat up on the Eastern this year. So all of the Western records should be skewed higher. The second is their horrible OT/SO record. I believe the Blues are 1-6 in overtime/shootouts. They are giving extra points away. This will cause them to miss the playoffs.
Monday, January 7, 2008
Remember, the Blues are not a good team
I, too, am dissatisfied with the team's offense. Scoring one goal a game is not a recipe for victory. Manny has been tremendous. When first signed, I was disappointed that Sanford wasn't getting an opportunity at the starting job. Legace has made me thankful.
When I was watching the most recent game, Andy Murray rolled out the top two lines I had been hoping for: Boyes - MacDonald - Kariya and Stempniak - Tkachuk - Perron. Five minutes into the second period, the lines were broken up. Ostensibly to 'spark' some offense. Apparently, if you don't score two goals in the first half of a game, your line will be busted up because you aren't producing. At this point in the season, I have to believe that every possible combination has been tried for the top two lines. Nothing has been sparked. It is time to set the lines and live or die by them. This mix and match shit has got to go.
Brad Boyes is not Brett Hull. He is Scott Young. Analysts will tell you that the hallmark of a great player is that he makes the people around them better. Brad Boyes (and Scott Young before him) is that type of player. He is not great. He is a good player but can be made great when playing with great players (as he is now by playing with Kariya).
When I was watching the most recent game, Andy Murray rolled out the top two lines I had been hoping for: Boyes - MacDonald - Kariya and Stempniak - Tkachuk - Perron. Five minutes into the second period, the lines were broken up. Ostensibly to 'spark' some offense. Apparently, if you don't score two goals in the first half of a game, your line will be busted up because you aren't producing. At this point in the season, I have to believe that every possible combination has been tried for the top two lines. Nothing has been sparked. It is time to set the lines and live or die by them. This mix and match shit has got to go.
Brad Boyes is not Brett Hull. He is Scott Young. Analysts will tell you that the hallmark of a great player is that he makes the people around them better. Brad Boyes (and Scott Young before him) is that type of player. He is not great. He is a good player but can be made great when playing with great players (as he is now by playing with Kariya).
Sunday, January 6, 2008
Ugly Offense
Happy New Year to all you Blues fans out there. Let's hope that 2008 will be even better than 2007 was. Of course for that to happen the Blues will have to start scoring goals at some point. Please forgive the negativity to start the year. I have to vent.
It's no secret that they are bad on offense but I think that just how bad they have been is being overlooked somewhat by the fact that they are playing very well on defense. This formula has kept the Blues' playoff hopes a reality so far but I just want to remind people that this is not feasible long term. I think probably when the Blues go through a losing streak people will begin to complain about how bad the offense is. I am not going to wait that long because for the first time in a long time my beloved Blues are boring to watch and that really really bothers me.
For perspective let's consider last season. Last year the Vancouver Canucks scored the least amount of goals of the eight playoff qualifiers in the Western Conference. They scored 222. That's an average of 2.7 goals per game. So far the Blues are scoring 2.5 goals per game (97 goals, 39 games) for a projected total of 204.
It doesn't really take much math to figure out that the Blues have to score more goals to make the playoffs. Right now they have scored 97 and given up 99. That is not a playoff team as hard as it is to admit.
So what is the problem? It's easy to say the power play is terrible but I have watched basically every game and this is not a systematic issue. The boys just don't have the goods. Let's call a few players out, shall we?
Mike Johnson:
He is barely on the team and wasn't ever expected to be relied upon to score but 2 goals and 3 assists in 21 games is pathetic and he does not deserve to wear the note. How close is he to the waiver wire? Hopefully very.
David Backes:
He is turning into a bust before our eyes. Has anyone noticed how Stempniak has scored more since he has been separated from Backes? He has 4 goals and 4 assists in 29 games. I'm hoping that he is sent to Peoria soon and has to earn his way back. I have not seen anything from him that leads me to believe he is second line NHL talent. The third line may be a stretch too because I'm not impressed by the way he digs in the corners either. My advice to him is to learn to kill penalties very well.
Jay McClement:
Basically the same story as Backes but less tragic because nobody ever expected him to be a regular offensive contributor. Nevertheless, 4 goals and 5 assists in 39 games is terrible.
It is tough to watch but remember, Blues fans, we are still building. It is looking more and more like Mike Johnson and Jay McClement are just keeping the bench warm for TJ Oshie and Patrick Berglund. Berglund was one of the best players in the recently completed World Junior Championships and won a silver medal for Sweden.
Notice I didn't call out Hinote or RJ but those guys are penalty killing specialists. RJ in particular is a beast in this regard and is having a great season. I was never excited about him before but his speed and work ethic have made me happy that he is wearing the note. He is a lock for next year.
We have talked about how there is no help at Peoria right now but at some point you have to give Lemtyugov a chance to win Backes' spot. That will probably not happen this year since the Blues management is convinced that Lemtyugov needs a lot more time to figure out the North American game.
It's going to be tough watching the Blues struggle on offense for another 40 games but remember. Next year is going to be a lot better.
It's no secret that they are bad on offense but I think that just how bad they have been is being overlooked somewhat by the fact that they are playing very well on defense. This formula has kept the Blues' playoff hopes a reality so far but I just want to remind people that this is not feasible long term. I think probably when the Blues go through a losing streak people will begin to complain about how bad the offense is. I am not going to wait that long because for the first time in a long time my beloved Blues are boring to watch and that really really bothers me.
For perspective let's consider last season. Last year the Vancouver Canucks scored the least amount of goals of the eight playoff qualifiers in the Western Conference. They scored 222. That's an average of 2.7 goals per game. So far the Blues are scoring 2.5 goals per game (97 goals, 39 games) for a projected total of 204.
It doesn't really take much math to figure out that the Blues have to score more goals to make the playoffs. Right now they have scored 97 and given up 99. That is not a playoff team as hard as it is to admit.
So what is the problem? It's easy to say the power play is terrible but I have watched basically every game and this is not a systematic issue. The boys just don't have the goods. Let's call a few players out, shall we?
Mike Johnson:
He is barely on the team and wasn't ever expected to be relied upon to score but 2 goals and 3 assists in 21 games is pathetic and he does not deserve to wear the note. How close is he to the waiver wire? Hopefully very.
David Backes:
He is turning into a bust before our eyes. Has anyone noticed how Stempniak has scored more since he has been separated from Backes? He has 4 goals and 4 assists in 29 games. I'm hoping that he is sent to Peoria soon and has to earn his way back. I have not seen anything from him that leads me to believe he is second line NHL talent. The third line may be a stretch too because I'm not impressed by the way he digs in the corners either. My advice to him is to learn to kill penalties very well.
Jay McClement:
Basically the same story as Backes but less tragic because nobody ever expected him to be a regular offensive contributor. Nevertheless, 4 goals and 5 assists in 39 games is terrible.
It is tough to watch but remember, Blues fans, we are still building. It is looking more and more like Mike Johnson and Jay McClement are just keeping the bench warm for TJ Oshie and Patrick Berglund. Berglund was one of the best players in the recently completed World Junior Championships and won a silver medal for Sweden.
Notice I didn't call out Hinote or RJ but those guys are penalty killing specialists. RJ in particular is a beast in this regard and is having a great season. I was never excited about him before but his speed and work ethic have made me happy that he is wearing the note. He is a lock for next year.
We have talked about how there is no help at Peoria right now but at some point you have to give Lemtyugov a chance to win Backes' spot. That will probably not happen this year since the Blues management is convinced that Lemtyugov needs a lot more time to figure out the North American game.
It's going to be tough watching the Blues struggle on offense for another 40 games but remember. Next year is going to be a lot better.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
I've been sick for five days
I meant to make another post on last Friday but I came down with the flu. I spent the entire day in bed. I spent the next five days in various stages of health, missed New Years Day, and the Blues finally won a game.
With Andy MacDonald out of the lineup, Andy Murray changed up the lines. Initially, Perwaltniak was broken up to form the original top line of Tkachuk - Boyes - Kariya. Thankfully, that was reversed and the line was reunited. They always play well together. Matt Walker has played much better recently. When he got back in the lineup after sitting out for 19 games, he looked bad. He looks like he did earlier in the season. He is still tentative handling the puck and making the long pass, but that his not who he is anyway. My faith has been restored. Of course, the Blues just recalled Wagner and Salvador and Jackman are both playing within the week. Does this mean Wagner is sent back down or that Walker is, once again, relegated to the eighth defenseman role?
Now that it is past the first of the year, expect re-signings and the occasional trade through the February trade deadline.
With Andy MacDonald out of the lineup, Andy Murray changed up the lines. Initially, Perwaltniak was broken up to form the original top line of Tkachuk - Boyes - Kariya. Thankfully, that was reversed and the line was reunited. They always play well together. Matt Walker has played much better recently. When he got back in the lineup after sitting out for 19 games, he looked bad. He looks like he did earlier in the season. He is still tentative handling the puck and making the long pass, but that his not who he is anyway. My faith has been restored. Of course, the Blues just recalled Wagner and Salvador and Jackman are both playing within the week. Does this mean Wagner is sent back down or that Walker is, once again, relegated to the eighth defenseman role?
Now that it is past the first of the year, expect re-signings and the occasional trade through the February trade deadline.
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