I just want to thank Kyle for keeping the effort up on this blog while I handle my cross-country move. I haven't forgotten about my Blues. I actually have a lot of pent up Blues fan energy I need to get onto this thing. Once I get settled It'll be business as usual.
In the meantime, GO BLUES!
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
The Home Stretch
The post ASG rush begins tonight. Like a million other people, I thought I would give my opinions on the Blues players as we look forward. I will grade each player based on my expectations at the begining of the season.
Paul Kariya - B
I didn't know quite what to expect but I knew he had been a point per game player. He has been that and he has made others around him better, which makes him exceed my expectations. But at only 12 goals and horrible power play, for which he holds some responsibility, means he doesn't get the A.
Brad Boyes - A
I expected Brad to score 25+/- goals on the season. He has well exceeded those expectations, scoring 29 goals to this date. But he is just a sniper, not a playmaker and his lack of assists bears that out.
Keith Tkachuk - C
I expected a 20+ season from him with some rough play. Guess what. He is on pace to score 20+ goals and plays a good checking and defensive game.
Andy McDonald - C
I am kind of punting this decision. Andy was a midseason acquisition. He has played well but the team has not. Do the Blues miss Doug Weight?
Lee Stempniak - D
I am a little disappointed in The General. I expected a 25+/- goal season from him with a little more playmaking ability than Brad Boyes. He is on pace to score less than 20 goals. That might be a result of Lee playing on the third line most of the season with only about a third of the year on the second line. But those are excuses. If you are a good player, you need to produce.
David Perron - B
David is the sixth leading scorer on a bad offensive team. He should score between 15 and 20 goals and double that number of points. A good start to a, hopefully, long career.
Erik Johnson - C
His good performance hasn't surprised me. He plays a solid game but isn't yet dominant (I don't know if he will get there). His 13 assists is a little better than I expected but not enough to bump up to a B.
Jamal Mayers - C
Jamal plays a great game. Is very good on the checking line and is stellar on the penalty kill. This is what I have come to expect from him.
David Backes - C
He is what he is. This is only his first full year (though he is not a rookie) but I think he has fulfilled his potential. A mediocre third line player. What Jeff calls a 'plumber'.
Eric Brewer - D
It's not that he has played badly. It's just that he hasn't played well every single game. I have, long ago, given up on him being a dominant defensemen. But he should play better and more consistently. Offensively, he has fewer points than Erik Johnson. I expect more.
Jay McClement - D
He hasn't played any worse than Backes but I thought that he would play better than him. I was hopeful that he would be put on the checking line with RJ and Jamal and that he would shine. He hasn't. He is falling into the category of plumber.
Christian Backman - D
One goal, nine assists, minus two. He is bigger than I assumed at the start of the season (6'4"). Someone needs to sit him down and show him Eric Brewer or Erik Johnson make a rush. I don't think I've ever seen him do that. He needs to be more aggressive in all aspects of his game.
Martin Rucinsky - D
He's injured. Never a good start. I assumed 10+ goals and adds some speed to a third line. Has three goals so far. A plumber with a little extra speed.
Ryan Johnson - B
He is filling the role that I expect but he is doing it better than I thought he would. He and Jamal are a joy to watch because they are so good at what they do. He's a keeper.
Bryce Salvador - B
Bryce is a stay at home defensemen and he plays that role well. I have been expecting the increased speed of the league to negate his abilities. That hasn't happened and his play has bordered between good and great. (In the defensive zone, he provides no offense.)
Steve Wagner - B
Back in the lineup tonight. Moves the puck well. Skates well. I would like to see more aggression when he checks because he is bigger than he plays (6'2", 200 lbs.).
Dan Hinote - C
Another plumber. Not much else to say.
Jay McKee - B
He's not injured; that's a good start. Signed to be a core defensive defensemen and a 'shot-blocker'. He plays well, will check forwards. He can skate a little and pass a little.
Barrett Jackman - C
Plays bigger than he is. No offensive contribution. A tough grinder and can throw down but I see him chase a little bit and perhaps too aggressive and takes penalties. His +/- rating is alarming.
Mike Johnson - D
Hurt plumber.
DJ King - B
Wasn't expecting too much from him. He is overmatched most shifts but not all. He is the Blues' heavy. The two goals just about guaranteed his above expectation rating.
Matt Walker - C
I have been pulling for him since the first couple of games when he looked real good out there. He has come back down to earth. He is not a top 4 defenseman but is not a liability. He is very physical but gets nervous when he is carrying the puck and tends to get rid of it immediately instead of looking for the best play.
I did look at the goalies but quite a bit has been said about them already. There were eight positives and six negatives. One nice surprise and no big let downs. What is now glaring is the lack of a shutdown defenseman. Will Erik Johnson be that? When will he be that? Paul Kariya is the only All Star caliber forward the Blues have. Their top line of PK-AM-BB is good, not great, and can be physically manhandled. There is no stable second line from game to game or even shift to shift. I think this is a big detriment. I favor the PerWaltNiak line and think Lee Stempniak has been wronged by playing on the third line most of the season. There are five forwards (those deemed 'plumbers') I would punt from the team to try and cycle in young players and establish a third scoring line. I really like the JM-RJ-DJK checking line. Perhaps McClement can be dropped to that line and cycle in DJK game to game.
Paul Kariya - B
I didn't know quite what to expect but I knew he had been a point per game player. He has been that and he has made others around him better, which makes him exceed my expectations. But at only 12 goals and horrible power play, for which he holds some responsibility, means he doesn't get the A.
Brad Boyes - A
I expected Brad to score 25+/- goals on the season. He has well exceeded those expectations, scoring 29 goals to this date. But he is just a sniper, not a playmaker and his lack of assists bears that out.
Keith Tkachuk - C
I expected a 20+ season from him with some rough play. Guess what. He is on pace to score 20+ goals and plays a good checking and defensive game.
Andy McDonald - C
I am kind of punting this decision. Andy was a midseason acquisition. He has played well but the team has not. Do the Blues miss Doug Weight?
Lee Stempniak - D
I am a little disappointed in The General. I expected a 25+/- goal season from him with a little more playmaking ability than Brad Boyes. He is on pace to score less than 20 goals. That might be a result of Lee playing on the third line most of the season with only about a third of the year on the second line. But those are excuses. If you are a good player, you need to produce.
David Perron - B
David is the sixth leading scorer on a bad offensive team. He should score between 15 and 20 goals and double that number of points. A good start to a, hopefully, long career.
Erik Johnson - C
His good performance hasn't surprised me. He plays a solid game but isn't yet dominant (I don't know if he will get there). His 13 assists is a little better than I expected but not enough to bump up to a B.
Jamal Mayers - C
Jamal plays a great game. Is very good on the checking line and is stellar on the penalty kill. This is what I have come to expect from him.
David Backes - C
He is what he is. This is only his first full year (though he is not a rookie) but I think he has fulfilled his potential. A mediocre third line player. What Jeff calls a 'plumber'.
Eric Brewer - D
It's not that he has played badly. It's just that he hasn't played well every single game. I have, long ago, given up on him being a dominant defensemen. But he should play better and more consistently. Offensively, he has fewer points than Erik Johnson. I expect more.
Jay McClement - D
He hasn't played any worse than Backes but I thought that he would play better than him. I was hopeful that he would be put on the checking line with RJ and Jamal and that he would shine. He hasn't. He is falling into the category of plumber.
Christian Backman - D
One goal, nine assists, minus two. He is bigger than I assumed at the start of the season (6'4"). Someone needs to sit him down and show him Eric Brewer or Erik Johnson make a rush. I don't think I've ever seen him do that. He needs to be more aggressive in all aspects of his game.
Martin Rucinsky - D
He's injured. Never a good start. I assumed 10+ goals and adds some speed to a third line. Has three goals so far. A plumber with a little extra speed.
Ryan Johnson - B
He is filling the role that I expect but he is doing it better than I thought he would. He and Jamal are a joy to watch because they are so good at what they do. He's a keeper.
Bryce Salvador - B
Bryce is a stay at home defensemen and he plays that role well. I have been expecting the increased speed of the league to negate his abilities. That hasn't happened and his play has bordered between good and great. (In the defensive zone, he provides no offense.)
Steve Wagner - B
Back in the lineup tonight. Moves the puck well. Skates well. I would like to see more aggression when he checks because he is bigger than he plays (6'2", 200 lbs.).
Dan Hinote - C
Another plumber. Not much else to say.
Jay McKee - B
He's not injured; that's a good start. Signed to be a core defensive defensemen and a 'shot-blocker'. He plays well, will check forwards. He can skate a little and pass a little.
Barrett Jackman - C
Plays bigger than he is. No offensive contribution. A tough grinder and can throw down but I see him chase a little bit and perhaps too aggressive and takes penalties. His +/- rating is alarming.
Mike Johnson - D
Hurt plumber.
DJ King - B
Wasn't expecting too much from him. He is overmatched most shifts but not all. He is the Blues' heavy. The two goals just about guaranteed his above expectation rating.
Matt Walker - C
I have been pulling for him since the first couple of games when he looked real good out there. He has come back down to earth. He is not a top 4 defenseman but is not a liability. He is very physical but gets nervous when he is carrying the puck and tends to get rid of it immediately instead of looking for the best play.
I did look at the goalies but quite a bit has been said about them already. There were eight positives and six negatives. One nice surprise and no big let downs. What is now glaring is the lack of a shutdown defenseman. Will Erik Johnson be that? When will he be that? Paul Kariya is the only All Star caliber forward the Blues have. Their top line of PK-AM-BB is good, not great, and can be physically manhandled. There is no stable second line from game to game or even shift to shift. I think this is a big detriment. I favor the PerWaltNiak line and think Lee Stempniak has been wronged by playing on the third line most of the season. There are five forwards (those deemed 'plumbers') I would punt from the team to try and cycle in young players and establish a third scoring line. I really like the JM-RJ-DJK checking line. Perhaps McClement can be dropped to that line and cycle in DJK game to game.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Effort
The Blues lost to the Canucks in a shootout. They did not score on four tries. The Blues did score on the powerplay but also gave up two powerplay goals. There are problems with this team and at first I thought that they were outworked by the Canucks. The Canucks spent far more time in the offensive zone than did the Blues. The Blues seem to always be chasing. Then two things I noticed changed my mind. The first was a moment when a Canucks player had the puck behind the net. No Blues player was on him. He was standing there. The Blues were trying to cover their men while one Blue defender stayed in front of the net. The second event was the overtime. The Blues never had possession of the puck it seemed. Four minutes of the five minute overtime were spent in the Blues zone.
These two things make me think the Blues' problem is not effort. It is a combination of coaching and skill. The style of coaching, for lack of a better term, is to stress a cover defense. Each opposing player is covered by a Blue all the time. There were no double teams in the defensive zone that might have caused a turn over. This means that the Canucks are always playing one-on-one in the defensive zone. There is bound to be slipped coverage or mismatch which will lead to a great scoring opportunity. It also means the Blues aren't chasing the puck but other players. The second is that the Blues lack high-end skill players. There are only two players that I would say handle the puck well - Kariya and MacDonald - but they are too small to carry it for long. (Perron shows great promise here. Great hands and seems strong enough to go into the corners.) There are others who handle it adequately - Stempniak, Boyes, etc. - but that won't get them past defenders.
All this means is that the Blues can't create their own scoring opportunities. They have to wait for a mistake or breakdown in their opponents. They cannot dictate play. This is very dangerous and why they are not a good team, even as hard as Manny tries.
These two things make me think the Blues' problem is not effort. It is a combination of coaching and skill. The style of coaching, for lack of a better term, is to stress a cover defense. Each opposing player is covered by a Blue all the time. There were no double teams in the defensive zone that might have caused a turn over. This means that the Canucks are always playing one-on-one in the defensive zone. There is bound to be slipped coverage or mismatch which will lead to a great scoring opportunity. It also means the Blues aren't chasing the puck but other players. The second is that the Blues lack high-end skill players. There are only two players that I would say handle the puck well - Kariya and MacDonald - but they are too small to carry it for long. (Perron shows great promise here. Great hands and seems strong enough to go into the corners.) There are others who handle it adequately - Stempniak, Boyes, etc. - but that won't get them past defenders.
All this means is that the Blues can't create their own scoring opportunities. They have to wait for a mistake or breakdown in their opponents. They cannot dictate play. This is very dangerous and why they are not a good team, even as hard as Manny tries.
Monday, January 21, 2008
The Slide Continues
The Blues now sit in 10th in the Western Conference and are five points out of a playoff slot. The Blues have looked like a good team because they had great goaltending. They covered up the misplays by the defensemen and the lack of back checking by some forwards. Now the goaltending is mediocre to bad and the Blues are being blown out of games.
The Blues will not make the playoffs. If they pick up their play, they will finish about where they are at now, 10th in the West. If they don't, they will continue to sink in the standings. That is not a wholly bad thing. While it is hard to watch, this is still a rebuilding year (hopefully the last). The Blues need to clear out some plumbers (as someone else on this blog likes to say) for more talent before they think about making a run at and in the playoffs.
The Blues will not make the playoffs. If they pick up their play, they will finish about where they are at now, 10th in the West. If they don't, they will continue to sink in the standings. That is not a wholly bad thing. While it is hard to watch, this is still a rebuilding year (hopefully the last). The Blues need to clear out some plumbers (as someone else on this blog likes to say) for more talent before they think about making a run at and in the playoffs.
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Hannu the Minor League Starting Goaltender
It appears that my enthusiasm for Hannu's play was premature. He has been sent down to Peoria to 'see some pucks'. He has been terrible lately. Some very soft goals against Columbus. In the last four games, his save percentage was around .850 and his goals against was above 4. How long he stays there is anyone's guess. Marek Schwarz has been called up as the backup. It is doubtful that he will play at all. He was been mediocre at best down in Peoria and lost the starting job to Chris Beckford-Tseu (who has an ECHL-AHL contract but not an NHL contract). Ben Bishop can't get here fast enough.
I think the Blues are going to come up just short this year for the playoffs. They are currently in 9th in the Western Conference. It is true that they have games in hand, but if look at their record, it isn't pretty. Their record is 22-21 for the season, or essentially .500. With 8 of 15 teams in each conference making the playoffs, the Blues should be in with a .500 record. But there are two things that work against them. The Western Conference has beat up on the Eastern this year. So all of the Western records should be skewed higher. The second is their horrible OT/SO record. I believe the Blues are 1-6 in overtime/shootouts. They are giving extra points away. This will cause them to miss the playoffs.
I think the Blues are going to come up just short this year for the playoffs. They are currently in 9th in the Western Conference. It is true that they have games in hand, but if look at their record, it isn't pretty. Their record is 22-21 for the season, or essentially .500. With 8 of 15 teams in each conference making the playoffs, the Blues should be in with a .500 record. But there are two things that work against them. The Western Conference has beat up on the Eastern this year. So all of the Western records should be skewed higher. The second is their horrible OT/SO record. I believe the Blues are 1-6 in overtime/shootouts. They are giving extra points away. This will cause them to miss the playoffs.
Monday, January 7, 2008
Remember, the Blues are not a good team
I, too, am dissatisfied with the team's offense. Scoring one goal a game is not a recipe for victory. Manny has been tremendous. When first signed, I was disappointed that Sanford wasn't getting an opportunity at the starting job. Legace has made me thankful.
When I was watching the most recent game, Andy Murray rolled out the top two lines I had been hoping for: Boyes - MacDonald - Kariya and Stempniak - Tkachuk - Perron. Five minutes into the second period, the lines were broken up. Ostensibly to 'spark' some offense. Apparently, if you don't score two goals in the first half of a game, your line will be busted up because you aren't producing. At this point in the season, I have to believe that every possible combination has been tried for the top two lines. Nothing has been sparked. It is time to set the lines and live or die by them. This mix and match shit has got to go.
Brad Boyes is not Brett Hull. He is Scott Young. Analysts will tell you that the hallmark of a great player is that he makes the people around them better. Brad Boyes (and Scott Young before him) is that type of player. He is not great. He is a good player but can be made great when playing with great players (as he is now by playing with Kariya).
When I was watching the most recent game, Andy Murray rolled out the top two lines I had been hoping for: Boyes - MacDonald - Kariya and Stempniak - Tkachuk - Perron. Five minutes into the second period, the lines were broken up. Ostensibly to 'spark' some offense. Apparently, if you don't score two goals in the first half of a game, your line will be busted up because you aren't producing. At this point in the season, I have to believe that every possible combination has been tried for the top two lines. Nothing has been sparked. It is time to set the lines and live or die by them. This mix and match shit has got to go.
Brad Boyes is not Brett Hull. He is Scott Young. Analysts will tell you that the hallmark of a great player is that he makes the people around them better. Brad Boyes (and Scott Young before him) is that type of player. He is not great. He is a good player but can be made great when playing with great players (as he is now by playing with Kariya).
Sunday, January 6, 2008
Ugly Offense
Happy New Year to all you Blues fans out there. Let's hope that 2008 will be even better than 2007 was. Of course for that to happen the Blues will have to start scoring goals at some point. Please forgive the negativity to start the year. I have to vent.
It's no secret that they are bad on offense but I think that just how bad they have been is being overlooked somewhat by the fact that they are playing very well on defense. This formula has kept the Blues' playoff hopes a reality so far but I just want to remind people that this is not feasible long term. I think probably when the Blues go through a losing streak people will begin to complain about how bad the offense is. I am not going to wait that long because for the first time in a long time my beloved Blues are boring to watch and that really really bothers me.
For perspective let's consider last season. Last year the Vancouver Canucks scored the least amount of goals of the eight playoff qualifiers in the Western Conference. They scored 222. That's an average of 2.7 goals per game. So far the Blues are scoring 2.5 goals per game (97 goals, 39 games) for a projected total of 204.
It doesn't really take much math to figure out that the Blues have to score more goals to make the playoffs. Right now they have scored 97 and given up 99. That is not a playoff team as hard as it is to admit.
So what is the problem? It's easy to say the power play is terrible but I have watched basically every game and this is not a systematic issue. The boys just don't have the goods. Let's call a few players out, shall we?
Mike Johnson:
He is barely on the team and wasn't ever expected to be relied upon to score but 2 goals and 3 assists in 21 games is pathetic and he does not deserve to wear the note. How close is he to the waiver wire? Hopefully very.
David Backes:
He is turning into a bust before our eyes. Has anyone noticed how Stempniak has scored more since he has been separated from Backes? He has 4 goals and 4 assists in 29 games. I'm hoping that he is sent to Peoria soon and has to earn his way back. I have not seen anything from him that leads me to believe he is second line NHL talent. The third line may be a stretch too because I'm not impressed by the way he digs in the corners either. My advice to him is to learn to kill penalties very well.
Jay McClement:
Basically the same story as Backes but less tragic because nobody ever expected him to be a regular offensive contributor. Nevertheless, 4 goals and 5 assists in 39 games is terrible.
It is tough to watch but remember, Blues fans, we are still building. It is looking more and more like Mike Johnson and Jay McClement are just keeping the bench warm for TJ Oshie and Patrick Berglund. Berglund was one of the best players in the recently completed World Junior Championships and won a silver medal for Sweden.
Notice I didn't call out Hinote or RJ but those guys are penalty killing specialists. RJ in particular is a beast in this regard and is having a great season. I was never excited about him before but his speed and work ethic have made me happy that he is wearing the note. He is a lock for next year.
We have talked about how there is no help at Peoria right now but at some point you have to give Lemtyugov a chance to win Backes' spot. That will probably not happen this year since the Blues management is convinced that Lemtyugov needs a lot more time to figure out the North American game.
It's going to be tough watching the Blues struggle on offense for another 40 games but remember. Next year is going to be a lot better.
It's no secret that they are bad on offense but I think that just how bad they have been is being overlooked somewhat by the fact that they are playing very well on defense. This formula has kept the Blues' playoff hopes a reality so far but I just want to remind people that this is not feasible long term. I think probably when the Blues go through a losing streak people will begin to complain about how bad the offense is. I am not going to wait that long because for the first time in a long time my beloved Blues are boring to watch and that really really bothers me.
For perspective let's consider last season. Last year the Vancouver Canucks scored the least amount of goals of the eight playoff qualifiers in the Western Conference. They scored 222. That's an average of 2.7 goals per game. So far the Blues are scoring 2.5 goals per game (97 goals, 39 games) for a projected total of 204.
It doesn't really take much math to figure out that the Blues have to score more goals to make the playoffs. Right now they have scored 97 and given up 99. That is not a playoff team as hard as it is to admit.
So what is the problem? It's easy to say the power play is terrible but I have watched basically every game and this is not a systematic issue. The boys just don't have the goods. Let's call a few players out, shall we?
Mike Johnson:
He is barely on the team and wasn't ever expected to be relied upon to score but 2 goals and 3 assists in 21 games is pathetic and he does not deserve to wear the note. How close is he to the waiver wire? Hopefully very.
David Backes:
He is turning into a bust before our eyes. Has anyone noticed how Stempniak has scored more since he has been separated from Backes? He has 4 goals and 4 assists in 29 games. I'm hoping that he is sent to Peoria soon and has to earn his way back. I have not seen anything from him that leads me to believe he is second line NHL talent. The third line may be a stretch too because I'm not impressed by the way he digs in the corners either. My advice to him is to learn to kill penalties very well.
Jay McClement:
Basically the same story as Backes but less tragic because nobody ever expected him to be a regular offensive contributor. Nevertheless, 4 goals and 5 assists in 39 games is terrible.
It is tough to watch but remember, Blues fans, we are still building. It is looking more and more like Mike Johnson and Jay McClement are just keeping the bench warm for TJ Oshie and Patrick Berglund. Berglund was one of the best players in the recently completed World Junior Championships and won a silver medal for Sweden.
Notice I didn't call out Hinote or RJ but those guys are penalty killing specialists. RJ in particular is a beast in this regard and is having a great season. I was never excited about him before but his speed and work ethic have made me happy that he is wearing the note. He is a lock for next year.
We have talked about how there is no help at Peoria right now but at some point you have to give Lemtyugov a chance to win Backes' spot. That will probably not happen this year since the Blues management is convinced that Lemtyugov needs a lot more time to figure out the North American game.
It's going to be tough watching the Blues struggle on offense for another 40 games but remember. Next year is going to be a lot better.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
I've been sick for five days
I meant to make another post on last Friday but I came down with the flu. I spent the entire day in bed. I spent the next five days in various stages of health, missed New Years Day, and the Blues finally won a game.
With Andy MacDonald out of the lineup, Andy Murray changed up the lines. Initially, Perwaltniak was broken up to form the original top line of Tkachuk - Boyes - Kariya. Thankfully, that was reversed and the line was reunited. They always play well together. Matt Walker has played much better recently. When he got back in the lineup after sitting out for 19 games, he looked bad. He looks like he did earlier in the season. He is still tentative handling the puck and making the long pass, but that his not who he is anyway. My faith has been restored. Of course, the Blues just recalled Wagner and Salvador and Jackman are both playing within the week. Does this mean Wagner is sent back down or that Walker is, once again, relegated to the eighth defenseman role?
Now that it is past the first of the year, expect re-signings and the occasional trade through the February trade deadline.
With Andy MacDonald out of the lineup, Andy Murray changed up the lines. Initially, Perwaltniak was broken up to form the original top line of Tkachuk - Boyes - Kariya. Thankfully, that was reversed and the line was reunited. They always play well together. Matt Walker has played much better recently. When he got back in the lineup after sitting out for 19 games, he looked bad. He looks like he did earlier in the season. He is still tentative handling the puck and making the long pass, but that his not who he is anyway. My faith has been restored. Of course, the Blues just recalled Wagner and Salvador and Jackman are both playing within the week. Does this mean Wagner is sent back down or that Walker is, once again, relegated to the eighth defenseman role?
Now that it is past the first of the year, expect re-signings and the occasional trade through the February trade deadline.
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