The Blues lost 2-1 last night after outshooting the Phoenix Coyotes 42-26. The Blues are 0-4-1 in their last five and have scored four goals in that span. The lack of scoring has become maddening. They just do not have a good goal scorer. There is no one on this team that will be a consistent 30+ goal scorer (Brad Boyes is playing above his level; too early for Perron) and it is killing this team. It doesn't look to get better in the near future. Next year, Perron will be a year older but Tkachuk and Kariya will be a year older as well. TJ Oshie will be added to the team but he is untested and unproven.
The Blues will clear approximately $15 million in salary from expiring and/or traded contracts and this includes the salary increases for players like Tkachuk, Stempniak and Jackman. (I looked at the actual salaries, not the salary cap numbers. Checketts wants to be breakeven next year so I used real world numbers, which will be driving the decision.) But nineteen players will have to be replaced (includes both NHL and AHL players) or resigned. Players like Brad Boyes ($3 million), David Backes ($800k), Ryan Johnson ($1 million), Jay McClement ($800k), Jeff Woywitka ($1 million), and Hannu Toivonen ($700k) will be resigned. Collegiate prospects like TJ Oshie and Ben Bishop will have to be signed. Eleven roster slots (in both the NHL and AHL) will be open after these are signed and ~$6 million left in the budget.
Conservatively, let's say the Blues somehow clear $4 million after resigning/signing 18 players to the 19 open slots (we won't mention that the Blues are $6 million over budget because they signed Kariya). What high end goal scorer will sign with the Blues at $4 million or less? It has already been discussed on the stltoday boards that the FA crop this summer will be thin. That will inflate salaries higher than last year. Expect next year to be another year of offensive futility.
Friday, February 29, 2008
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Deadline Aftermath
The Blues made three moves on Deadline Day. They signed Barret Jackman to a four year deal. They dealt Christian Backman for a 4th round pick. They dealt Bryce Salvador for Cam Janssen.
The Backman deal is easy to analyze. It is a salary dump. He is going to make in excess of $3 million next year (salary cap hit in the mid $2 million range) for a marginal player. Because of his large salary and his underperformance, he was worth only a mid-round pick and that's what the Blues got. The Blues got rid of an overpaid player, opened salary space for signings, and opened a roster slot for a young player. Not a bad deal.
The Jackman deal is also easy to analyze. He is a young (not yet 27 years old), tough player who started out the season poorly. He has played better lately but not up to his potential. And the Blues are paying a little for his potential. Four years and $3.6 million a year is quite significant for what he has brought this year. This ensures that the Blues will have a solid core of veterans (Jackman, McKee, and Brewer) to mentor the younger defensemen (Johnson, Woywitka, Wagner, and Polak) coming up (not to mention Al MacInnis).
The last deal, Salvador for Cam Janssen, is puzzling. With Backman being traded a slot opened up for Matt Walker and Jeff Woywitka to rotate in. (I was assuming that Wagner and Polak wouldn't make an appearance this year.) We could have kept Salvador and let him walk at the end of the year. I'm told that we would get a compensation pick if he signed for more than $3 million per year. Now two slots are open so Walker and Woywitka will play the rest of the season and perhaps Wagner or Polak will have to be called up. The other question is what is the value of Cam Janssen. I don't know him much except his stats. One goal in 95 NHL games. He is not a scorer. When John Davidson spoke about him, he described him as a young banger to free up space for the forwards. Besides the fact that we need scoring forwards, don't we already have those types of players?
Forwards who don't score on the Blues: Martin Rucinsky, Jamal Mayers, Dan Hinote, David Backes, Ryan Johnson, Jay McClement, and DJ King. Not one of these players has over ten goals this season. I didn't mention Mike Johnson (out with injury), Yan Stastny (too few games played), or Mike Glumac (too few games played). That is ten players who have played on the Blues who are not scoring threats. Three full lines. And now we add an eleventh. I'm not saying these players don't have value. Jamal Mayers and Ryan Johnson are outstanding defensive forwards and are key for the penalty kill. DJ King will beat the snot out of anyone. But how many do we need? Martin Rucinsky and Mike Johnson will be gone next year and Yan Stastny and Mike Glumac, in truth, are career minor leaguers. McClement and Backes are still thought of as potential scorers (but not by me). That would leave Jamal Mayers, Dan Hinote, Ryan Johnson, DJ King, and Cam Janssen fighting for time on the fourth line. Too many players. The only sense this acquisition would make is if one of these players didn't return. Ryan Johnson is an UFA.
The Backman deal is easy to analyze. It is a salary dump. He is going to make in excess of $3 million next year (salary cap hit in the mid $2 million range) for a marginal player. Because of his large salary and his underperformance, he was worth only a mid-round pick and that's what the Blues got. The Blues got rid of an overpaid player, opened salary space for signings, and opened a roster slot for a young player. Not a bad deal.
The Jackman deal is also easy to analyze. He is a young (not yet 27 years old), tough player who started out the season poorly. He has played better lately but not up to his potential. And the Blues are paying a little for his potential. Four years and $3.6 million a year is quite significant for what he has brought this year. This ensures that the Blues will have a solid core of veterans (Jackman, McKee, and Brewer) to mentor the younger defensemen (Johnson, Woywitka, Wagner, and Polak) coming up (not to mention Al MacInnis).
The last deal, Salvador for Cam Janssen, is puzzling. With Backman being traded a slot opened up for Matt Walker and Jeff Woywitka to rotate in. (I was assuming that Wagner and Polak wouldn't make an appearance this year.) We could have kept Salvador and let him walk at the end of the year. I'm told that we would get a compensation pick if he signed for more than $3 million per year. Now two slots are open so Walker and Woywitka will play the rest of the season and perhaps Wagner or Polak will have to be called up. The other question is what is the value of Cam Janssen. I don't know him much except his stats. One goal in 95 NHL games. He is not a scorer. When John Davidson spoke about him, he described him as a young banger to free up space for the forwards. Besides the fact that we need scoring forwards, don't we already have those types of players?
Forwards who don't score on the Blues: Martin Rucinsky, Jamal Mayers, Dan Hinote, David Backes, Ryan Johnson, Jay McClement, and DJ King. Not one of these players has over ten goals this season. I didn't mention Mike Johnson (out with injury), Yan Stastny (too few games played), or Mike Glumac (too few games played). That is ten players who have played on the Blues who are not scoring threats. Three full lines. And now we add an eleventh. I'm not saying these players don't have value. Jamal Mayers and Ryan Johnson are outstanding defensive forwards and are key for the penalty kill. DJ King will beat the snot out of anyone. But how many do we need? Martin Rucinsky and Mike Johnson will be gone next year and Yan Stastny and Mike Glumac, in truth, are career minor leaguers. McClement and Backes are still thought of as potential scorers (but not by me). That would leave Jamal Mayers, Dan Hinote, Ryan Johnson, DJ King, and Cam Janssen fighting for time on the fourth line. Too many players. The only sense this acquisition would make is if one of these players didn't return. Ryan Johnson is an UFA.
Monday, February 25, 2008
Sellers!
The Blues have just concluded a three game road trip in which they 'earned' one point. With 20 games left, they are 29 points from the playoff cutoff of 95 points that everyone now has to shoot for. They are also in twelfth place and six points back. There was a brief flicker of hope, as you can see from my last post. Now it is just the waiting to see who gets traded for whom and then to play out the string.
Trade deadline is tomorrow.
Trade deadline is tomorrow.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
On a Run
The Blues have gone 4-0-2 in their last six and now sit just three points back of Vancouver and Calgary who are tied for seventh in the conference with 68 points. This could be blessing, could be a curse. I most definitely want to see the Blues in the playoffs. Nothing compares to playoff hockey. (Last night's game came close, however.) It would also give the management something tangible to demonstrate the progress the team has made. This could, however, prevent any trades for the Blues.
It appears that the two biggest trade pieces that the Blues have include Barret Jackman and Bryce Salvador. Does a run at the playoffs preclude any deals involving these two players? Does it matter? Jaroslav Modry was recently traded to Philadelphia for a 3rd round pick. Both Bryce and Barret have more value than Modry but that sets the bar very low. Would a second round pick be worth either Barret or Bryce? Perhaps, perhaps, one but not both. That would lead me to believe they will be kept.
With Backman's injury, the speculation on his future has died down. Speculation has picked up on Lee Stempniak being traded as part of a package for a young forward. The Blues will very soon have a glut of mid-level prospects or young veterans(high level prospects go immediately to the head of the line) and they will have to clear some room. There won't be room for the former kid line of Stempniak, McClement, and Backes in addition to Linglet and Lemtyugov not to mention Stastny (who has played well), Martin Kariya, or Mike Glumac. Decisions will have to be made.
The word on the street (yeah, that's right. I said it) is that Alex Tanguay is on the block. Could be a great first line guy. He is underperforming this year (11 goals but 45 points; think Andy MacDonald but taller) and is making $5+ million dollars this year and next. That salary would be tough to swallow. I don't think I would give up much to get him.
There was a hiccup in my logon name that prevented posting. All cleared up now.
It appears that the two biggest trade pieces that the Blues have include Barret Jackman and Bryce Salvador. Does a run at the playoffs preclude any deals involving these two players? Does it matter? Jaroslav Modry was recently traded to Philadelphia for a 3rd round pick. Both Bryce and Barret have more value than Modry but that sets the bar very low. Would a second round pick be worth either Barret or Bryce? Perhaps, perhaps, one but not both. That would lead me to believe they will be kept.
With Backman's injury, the speculation on his future has died down. Speculation has picked up on Lee Stempniak being traded as part of a package for a young forward. The Blues will very soon have a glut of mid-level prospects or young veterans(high level prospects go immediately to the head of the line) and they will have to clear some room. There won't be room for the former kid line of Stempniak, McClement, and Backes in addition to Linglet and Lemtyugov not to mention Stastny (who has played well), Martin Kariya, or Mike Glumac. Decisions will have to be made.
The word on the street (yeah, that's right. I said it) is that Alex Tanguay is on the block. Could be a great first line guy. He is underperforming this year (11 goals but 45 points; think Andy MacDonald but taller) and is making $5+ million dollars this year and next. That salary would be tough to swallow. I don't think I would give up much to get him.
There was a hiccup in my logon name that prevented posting. All cleared up now.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Uglier and Uglier
The Blues are now 8 points from the final playoff spot in the West and five points from the worst record in the league. That's right, the Blues are closer to the bottom than the playoffs. I didn't expect that. In another post, I stated that I expected them to finish 2-4 points out of the playoffs. Than means they would have ~90 points for the season. The currently have 56 points and 28 games left. That estimation now appears optimistic.
In rumors today, the Blues will be trading Barrett Jackman, possibly to New York. The last time there was this much movement on a Blues rumor, it was speculated that Forsberg was close to signing. How does that look now.
Nothing much to do now but enjoy the games for the competition and wait for the offseason.
In rumors today, the Blues will be trading Barrett Jackman, possibly to New York. The last time there was this much movement on a Blues rumor, it was speculated that Forsberg was close to signing. How does that look now.
Nothing much to do now but enjoy the games for the competition and wait for the offseason.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Now 6 Points Out
Well, the Blues lost last night to Tampa Bay. The worst team in the East. Outstanding. They now sit six points out of the last playoff spot, which is occupied by Nashville and Colorado (tied in points). This hurt because at least two of the Tampa goals were flukey goals that were just thrown at the net and went in.
Woywitka made mistakes but that is not unexpected. I hope that he gets more than one game to show his worth. I see him and Wagner as the same type of player. They are both the same size and are mobile defensemen who are going to be counted on to be offensive. They are the same age as well but others claim Woywitka is more polished, which wouldn't be surprising as he spent his time in professional leagues while Wagner went to college.
I am worried about Stempniak. He is now being buried on the third line with McClement and King. Perhaps went Rucinsky comes back Stempniak will have someone to play with but for now, this won't get it done.
Woywitka made mistakes but that is not unexpected. I hope that he gets more than one game to show his worth. I see him and Wagner as the same type of player. They are both the same size and are mobile defensemen who are going to be counted on to be offensive. They are the same age as well but others claim Woywitka is more polished, which wouldn't be surprising as he spent his time in professional leagues while Wagner went to college.
I am worried about Stempniak. He is now being buried on the third line with McClement and King. Perhaps went Rucinsky comes back Stempniak will have someone to play with but for now, this won't get it done.
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