European NHL

This post could also be called "If I were the King of the Universe..." So that should tell you where I am going with this.

Of the major North American sports (yes, hockey is one of them and, no, soccer is not), it seems obvious to me that hockey has the greatest appeal and participation in Europe. With the latest developments in world economies, the Eurozone combined economy is now on par with the United States economy in terms of size (The pivot point, based on 2007 GDP, is 1.56 dollars to the euro.) and the combined European economy is as large or perhaps larger than a combined United States - Canadian economy. But America/Canada has numerous continent spanning sports leagues (MLB, NFL, NBA in addition to the NHL) while Europe has only one large one of which I am aware - the Champions League. Again, it seems obvious to me that Europe can support one continent spanning hockey league. The question for the NHL is whether they define it or does someone else (IIHF) define it.

As King of the Universe and the NHL, I would want to define it before the nascent Champions Hockey League grows roots. So here is my plan:

1) A 24 team North American division and a 12 team European division. I would propose that 6 teams from the current NHL be dissolved. This would coincide immediately with 12 expansion teams in Europe.

2) Six dissolved NHL teams: The 6 NHL team owners will have the option of owning one of the new European franchises outright or selling those rights to a suitable owner. The six franchises will be chosen based on a formula using number of season ticket holders and total revenue generated with special attention to doubled and trebled markets (I'm looking at you, LA and NY). Some of the owners will resist but the prospect of moving to a tier one European city should be a step up from either a third tier American city or being the undercard in a tier one American city.

3) Dissolve the six transferred NHL teams: All of the players would be added to the expansion draft for the now 12 expansion teams. This will level the playing field, at least among the European teams.

4) Expansion team ownership: The prime markets for these European teams already have nation-based leagues that will cry fowl at the revenue lost. I would propose that these leagues own, at least in part or temporarily, one expansion team that enters its home market. The RSL could own either the Moscow team or the St. Petersburg team, but not both. The team rights that are not owned by the former NHL owners or European leagues will be sold and the money distributed to the surviving owners.

5) Expansion draft: Aside from the players from the dissolved teams, players and prospects from surviving NHL teams would be added to the draft pool. Each team will be able to protect 14 players on its current roster and 10 prospects (arbitrary number) from the draft. All other players are fair game.

6) Restricted inter-league play: The travel for the teams will be horrendous if it is not restricted. I propose that play be restricted to one or two weeks a year leading into the All-Star game. The teams will travel to whichever continent the the All-Star is being held on.

7) North America ice surface: The leagues in Europe will use the North American sized ice rinks. This will mean building out the rinks from scratch (many do not exist to begin with) or adapting current rinks. This will insure that playing styles will be similar and that one league will not have an advantage over the other.

8) Restricted playoffs: The North American division will have three rounds, the first a best of five series. The European division will have two rounds. There will then be a final series between NA and Eu in a seven game series. The early rounds are restricted and condensed to allow extra travel time for the finals.

Well, I think that is everything. Of course, I didn't look at how this will work out financially. My hope would be that in ten years, the European clubs are self-sustaining. This could open the door for a rival NA league in the abandoned markets. Talent dilution could be a problem. I welcome comments.

Champions Hockey League

It came to my attention that last year the NHL Board of Govenors discussed expansion of the NHL. But not in North America, in Europe. I like this idea and maybe in another post I'll detail how I think the NHL should expand into Europe. However, I am not going to talk about this today. I want to talk about the Champions Hockey League.

A week or so ago I was watching some Champions League (soccer) matches and wondered why the various hockey leagues in Europe didn't have a comparable league. I did some digging and found out that the Champions Hockey League is starting in October of 2008. This league, or tournament, will pit the best 24 club teams against one another in a two round qualification stage, a two round group stage, and then semi-finals and finals. I got excited about the prospect of seeing Swedish Elite teams running against Russian Super teams. Then I looked at the details and was a little deflated.

What I was hoping for was an extra post-season attached to all of the European leagues that would decide the European champion. This currently exists as the IIHF European Champions Cup. The participants in 2008 were Metallurg Magnitogorsk (RSL), MODO Hockey (SEL), HC Slovan Bratislava (Slovak EL), Karpat (Finish SML), HC Sparta Prague (CEL), and HC Davos (Swiss A League). The teams play a round robin format followed by a championship game. Metallurg Magnitogorsk defeated HC Sparta Prague. (Note: During the four years of this competition, it was hosted each time in St. Petersburg and it was always won by a Russian team.)

This is to be replaced by the Champions Hockey League. Here are the problems that I see with this league. It runs concurrently with the national level hockey leagues similar to the soccer Champions League. The problem I see here is what is the goal of the team? Is it to win the SEL Championship or to win the CHL Championship? Will players be held back? What does it mean for NHL prospects playing in European leagues? The second problem I have is that it lasts from October through January. It is a separate league, not a tournament. Some of the problems of one club team belonging to multiple leagues is listed above but is not exhaustive. A third problem I have is that the teams playing in the 2008 Champions season are determined by the results of the 2007 club season. The winner of the 2008 Champions league may not be the best team in Europe and may not even resemble the team from 2007, when it qualified.

There are some good points, to be sure. The long time frame would get fans more involved. It would also allow for more exposure and awareness of the quality of play. The additional games allows the purse to be larger for the participants. This should ensure a high level of quality of games.

Perhaps I have a bias against the club team system prevalent in Europe. There are more things that I dislike about the Champions Hockey League that I like. However, I will still take any pan-European play over no pan-European play. I would favor a European division of the NHL over both of these options. Stay tuned.

What to do with #4

On the very, very exciting live broadcast of the NHL draft lottery, the Blues did not win the lottery and will pick 4th overall in the draft. The question that immediately sprung to my mind, and no one else's, was 'Who will the Blues draft?'

To answer that questions, first I want to understand what the Blues need and how badly they need it. The Blues need scoring forwards, an offensive minded defenseman, scoring forwards, and scoring forwards.

The Blues definitely need an offensive minded defenseman but they might already have one or two for next season. Erik Johnson is going to be that it is just a matter of when. Will he be that next season or the season after? Jeff Woywitka and Steve Wagner also have the potential to be slick skating defenseman that can pass but neither will be great. Pass them, Jonas Junland has been mentioned but will be at least one more year away, maybe, probably, more (or maybe he is Christian Backman, part II). In two years, the Blues will have one elite defenseman, two offensive defensemen, and some shutdown defensemen. I don't see a burning need.

The Blues definitely need scoring forwards. In two years, the Blues will have these scoring forwards from their current team: Brad Boyes, Paul Kariya, David Perron, and Lee Stempniak. I believe Andy MacDonald's contract runs out after next year. I did not include David Backes because I am not convinced he is an offensive player and his contract is up (though should be extended this offseason). Definite prospects that will be here in two years only includes T.J Oshie and Patrik Berglund. (Nikolay Lemtyugov has some potential, Lars Eller might be ready but I figure he will be at Peoria that year, Nicholas Drazenovic is an unknown.) That is a total of six scoring forwards. By my estimation that would give the Blues one very good top line, a poor second line and then two checking lines. Without more scoring, the Blues will be exactly where they are today. The solution could be free agency but with the tight purse strings, I would not expect it. Regardless, there is a definite need.

Verdict: the Blues need scoring forwards more than they need offensive defensemen.

Having said that, there is an axiom in regards to drafting players: Always draft the best player available. If you want to draft to need, trade down in the draft and obtain an asset and the player you wanted.

If the Blues want a defenseman, hold onto the 4th pick and take the last of the big three defensemen (Doughty, Bogosian, Pietrangelo).

If the Blues want a forward, trade down and take Nikita Filatov, Kyle Beach, Colin Wilson, or Mikkel Boedker. The problem comes in finding a partner. Will Columbus or Toronto want to move up? If they do, the Blues are guaranteed a top forward. If they trade lower, to Phoenix or Florida, they will most likely miss out on Beach and Filatov.

If I were the Blues' GM, I would try to get a 2nd round pick from whichever team wants to move up and take one of the forwards in this order: Filatov, Beach, Boedker, Wilson.

Disclaimer: I have not seen any of these players myself and have formed opinions based only on what has been written by others. Whatever happens, I'm sure Jarmo will make the right choice, whether that coincides with my supposition or not.

They shoot Blues, don't they?

Well, I am going to give a report card. Though the season was a disappointment, I was not soured by it and find that looking back is a cathartic exercise and important to know where the team is headed. Without further ado, my second half report card:

Paul Kariya
82 games, 16 goals, 49 assists, 65 points
Grade: D
This the worst output that Paul has had in a full season since 2001 and even then he scored 32 goals. This is also the second straight year he has had a decline in production. He is in his mid-thirties now and this is most likely a trend. He is still talented and has good speed but is easily managed by the opponent's defense. He is no longer a first line player but gets those minutes with the Blues.

Brad Boyes
82 games, 43 goals, 22 assists, 65 points
Grade: A
Brad's previous career high had been 26 goals and this is the first season he has more goals than assists. He is definitely playing above his level. He has raised everyone's expectations and I now see him as a 30+/- goal per year player. He can play on the first line but does not seem to have the talent to make those around him better. He seems to play below his size.

Keith Tkachuk
79 games, 27 goals, 31 assists, 58 points
Grade: B
With the three goals in the last two games, Walt notched his 500th career goal. With 27 goals for the second straight year, he exceeded expectations slightly. He is a natural winger forced to play center on the first line. At times it showed as a lack of passion. He has played on the first line but is better as a second line power forward on the wing.

Andy MacDonald
82 games, 18 goals, 34 assists, 52 points
Grade: C
Acquired for Doug Weight midseason. He was a point per game player in the two previous years with Anaheim. But that was with Teemu Selanne on his wing, and I think everyone recognizes that. Briefly played on the first line but is better suited to the second. He is a good skater and passer but can be pushed off the puck by average sized defensemen. Having said that, 18 goals and 52 points is not going to cut for a second line center. I would need 20 and 60 from that spot.

Lee Stempniak
80 games, 13 goals, 25 assists, 38 points
Grade: D
Lee barely avoided an F grade. This is a fourteen goal drop from his previous year when he saw time on the top line. He started out the season on a line with Backes and McClement and then the rotation began. At first I saw this as the reason of his lack of production but as the season wore on, his play become much more evident as the cause. He deserved to be demoted to the third line. Lee can skate well, pass well, and shoot well; but when he doesn't do even one of those things well, combined with his lack of size, he is a sub-par player. 20 goals and 50 points is the high end of my expectations for him next year, if he is still here.

Erik Johnson
69 games, 5 goals, 28 assists, 33 points
Grade: A
Erik played very well for an NHL defenseman, not to mention he is a rookie. His play has gotten better and better as the season wore on and it won't be long before he is an elite defender. That is what has impressed me the most, the amount of progress that is actually visible in his play.

David Backes
72 games, 13 goals, 18 assists, 31 points
Grade: B
Though he has played better recently, I am not sold on him as a power forward. He skates well and plays to his size (which the Blues lack, in general) but he doesn't create his own chances and he often misses the chances he is given. I do, however, want to see a little more of him but, really, how much development time does he need?

Jamal Mayers
80 games, 12 goals, 15 assists, 27 points
Grade: C
Jamal is great as a checking line forward and is stellar on the penalty kill. This is what I expect from him. The -19 rating is curious, however.

David Perron
62 games, 13 goals, 14 assists, 27 points
Grade: B
David cooled off after a terrific start on the ice. There were rumors of off-ice attitude problems but those, we are assured, were overblown. He improved his defensive play and continued his great play down low in the offensive zone. He should have secured a second line role for next year.

Eric Brewer
77 games, 1 goal, 21 assists, 22 points
Grade: C
I believe that my expectatons of Brewer have been lowered to the point he has met them. He hasn't played any better than in the first half of the year. He has thrown a couple of hits but hasn't really made that aspect a part of this game. One goal is embarassing.

Jay McClement
81 games, 9 goals, 13 assists, 22 points
Grade: D
Any offensive aspects of his game have disappeared. He could be a good defensive forward but doesn't really play physical enough to excel at that role. He has been playing more on the PK. Is he being groomed to replace Ryan Johnson?

Ryan Johnson
79 games, 5 goals, 13 assists, 18 points
Grade: C
Ryan is very good at what he does. He is very valuable to a team that was 6th in the league in penalty killing. He is an UFA, however, and there are too many forwards on this team. I don't think he will be back.

Barret Jackman
78 games, 2 goals, 14 assists, 16 points
Grade: C
He has played better than in the first half of the season but still makes mistakes. He is forced to play on the power play when he has no business being out there. Plays bigger than he is and can throw some big checks.

Dan Hinote
58 games, 5 goals, 5 assists, 10 points
Grade: C
I'm still not exactly sure why he was signed. He is a decent enough fourth line forward but did we need another one?

Jay McKee
66 games, 2 goals, 7 assists, 9 points
Grade: C
Signed to be a core defenseman. He plays well enough at that role. He seems like a good skater and passer which makes me think he should be more offensive. Has thrown some good body checks.

Jeff Woywitka
27 games, 2 goals, 6 assists, 8 points
Grade: C
The other part of the Pronger trade (we won't mention Doug Lynch), Jeff essentially replaced Steve Wagner in the second half. He is a very good skater and not afraid to rush up the ice. The Blues need that in a defenseman.

DJ King
61 games, 3 goals, 3 assists, 6 points
Grade: C
The Blues' heavy. Fights very well.

Matt Walker
43 games, 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points
Grade: C
Didn't get much ice time in the first half of the season but ended up playing in more than half the games. His first goal, ever. A stay-at-home defenseman that uses his big body to punish forwards, Matt asked for a trade midseason because of the lack of ice time. He is not a liability defensively but cannot shutdown the opponent's top line.

Cam Janssen
12 games, 0 goals, 1 assist, 1 point
Grade: C
Acquired for Bryce Salvador at the trade deadline. Why? I don't know. He is a local kid who likes to hit and fight. Fits on the fourth line but DJ King is better at fighting and Jamal Mayers is better at everything else.

Other players who spent time with the Blues this year: Doug Weight, Bryce Salvador, Martin Rucinsky, Mike Johnson, Steve Wagner (prospect), Yan Stastny, Roman Polak (prospect), Micki Dupont (2 games, when was this?), and Mike Glumac. Of these Steve Wagner and Roman Polak are the only ones who should compete for ice time next year. Yan Stastny might get a call up as a third liner but other high end prospects will most likely take precedent.

Overall, this was a bad year for the Blues. They finished with 2 fewer points than they did last year. Their offense is anemic and their defense has holes that only great goaltending covered up at the begining of the year.

It's Almost Over

On Sunday the nightmare will end. There will be no tears, no rants, no outbursts of any kind. Just the sweet relief that the death of this horrible f***ing nightmare of a season will bring.

In the coming days everyone in Blues nation will have a report card on each of the players and coaches/management. I am not going to do one. I am not going to waste my time writing again about how Jay McClement sucks, or Backes has hands of stone, or blah blah blah. I knew from the start the Blues had a bad offense and we complained about it here often. There no sense in rehashing the same old garbage.

The draft lottery is Monday so we will know then in what position the Blues will draft (hopefully first!). Look towards the future and forget this season. My next post will be my blueprint for the Blues future and what they have to do to get it done.

As for this year, the pain is almost over.