What to do with #4

On the very, very exciting live broadcast of the NHL draft lottery, the Blues did not win the lottery and will pick 4th overall in the draft. The question that immediately sprung to my mind, and no one else's, was 'Who will the Blues draft?'

To answer that questions, first I want to understand what the Blues need and how badly they need it. The Blues need scoring forwards, an offensive minded defenseman, scoring forwards, and scoring forwards.

The Blues definitely need an offensive minded defenseman but they might already have one or two for next season. Erik Johnson is going to be that it is just a matter of when. Will he be that next season or the season after? Jeff Woywitka and Steve Wagner also have the potential to be slick skating defenseman that can pass but neither will be great. Pass them, Jonas Junland has been mentioned but will be at least one more year away, maybe, probably, more (or maybe he is Christian Backman, part II). In two years, the Blues will have one elite defenseman, two offensive defensemen, and some shutdown defensemen. I don't see a burning need.

The Blues definitely need scoring forwards. In two years, the Blues will have these scoring forwards from their current team: Brad Boyes, Paul Kariya, David Perron, and Lee Stempniak. I believe Andy MacDonald's contract runs out after next year. I did not include David Backes because I am not convinced he is an offensive player and his contract is up (though should be extended this offseason). Definite prospects that will be here in two years only includes T.J Oshie and Patrik Berglund. (Nikolay Lemtyugov has some potential, Lars Eller might be ready but I figure he will be at Peoria that year, Nicholas Drazenovic is an unknown.) That is a total of six scoring forwards. By my estimation that would give the Blues one very good top line, a poor second line and then two checking lines. Without more scoring, the Blues will be exactly where they are today. The solution could be free agency but with the tight purse strings, I would not expect it. Regardless, there is a definite need.

Verdict: the Blues need scoring forwards more than they need offensive defensemen.

Having said that, there is an axiom in regards to drafting players: Always draft the best player available. If you want to draft to need, trade down in the draft and obtain an asset and the player you wanted.

If the Blues want a defenseman, hold onto the 4th pick and take the last of the big three defensemen (Doughty, Bogosian, Pietrangelo).

If the Blues want a forward, trade down and take Nikita Filatov, Kyle Beach, Colin Wilson, or Mikkel Boedker. The problem comes in finding a partner. Will Columbus or Toronto want to move up? If they do, the Blues are guaranteed a top forward. If they trade lower, to Phoenix or Florida, they will most likely miss out on Beach and Filatov.

If I were the Blues' GM, I would try to get a 2nd round pick from whichever team wants to move up and take one of the forwards in this order: Filatov, Beach, Boedker, Wilson.

Disclaimer: I have not seen any of these players myself and have formed opinions based only on what has been written by others. Whatever happens, I'm sure Jarmo will make the right choice, whether that coincides with my supposition or not.